With ups and downs, the dynamics of the foreign exchange market don’t seem to be changing much day by day. This Tuesday, The plant continued to lose reserves in a critical month and had to sell $49 million to meet market demands.
In the informal segment, the blue dollar has gone up; while share prices, thanks to persistent official intervention, closed with mixed results: MEP barely gave up and ended up at $353.20 and cash on liquid ended up at nearly par with the previous close.
With the sales this Tuesday, in the first five rounds of February, the Central Bank has already spent $241 million, in a month with high maturities. When compared with the same period a year ago, the haemorrhage is striking: in February 2022, Centrale had sold 26 million dollars in 20-wheelers.
If the magnifying glass is enlarged, it can be seen that the trickle of reserves is even greater. According to estimates by Aurum Valores, from January 17, one day before the announcement of the repurchase of dollar debt led by Sergio Massa and up to this Tuesday, the Central Bank has sold 694 million dollars, which would add to others $639 million that went to purchase dollarized bonds.
Lucas Yatche, of Liebre Capital, said: “Today the official devaluation runs at an annualized effective rate of more than 95% and without a foreign exchange supply, the central continues to sell dollars in the MULC. Meanwhile, after the recent understood in the ROFEX futures market, we observe the implied devaluation curve for TEAs around 105/110%”
“It wouldn’t be surprising that as we get into the second half and the demand for coverage grows, these rates will move higher,” he added.
The pressure on dollarization continues, despite numerous attempts by the government to calm the market. In the streets, after the criticisms of the opposition to the “economic legacy” that this government will leave, the blue has recovered. It jumped $4 and ended up at $377. So far in February, the free price is down $4, after closing last month at $381.
On the equity front, and in an increasingly intervening market, the dollars closed almost unchanged. “It’s no surprise that financial dollars just keep swinging and staying,” they said at the end of the PPI conference.
Traders report that the pressure is most felt in the mid-round when prices rally, but thereafter official intervention seems to keep prices at bay into the close.
“We continue to see some lag in cash with settlement, which has been operating at a lower rate than inflation growth and broad monetary base. At the same time, since no significant movements in the exchange rate gap are expected, financial dollars should at least keep pace with the official exchange rate,” Yatche added.
Source: Clarin
