Hours before the release of official January inflation data, the government He was already making preparations to absorb the “bad data”. Economy Minister Sergio Massa acknowledged this when he announced a new price cap on the 7 most popular cuts of meatin common agreement with refrigerators, supermarkets and butchers, which have become part of the expanded version of Prizzi Giusti.

Separate evidence on its low effectiveness, in the Secretary of Commerce, led by Matías Tombolini, rated the results of the new anti-inflation regime “very positive”., which includes a basket of almost 2,000 consumer items with prices frozen until the end of June. And an increase of up to 3.2% per month for another 50,000 miscellaneous products, such as footwear, mobile phones, textiles and even manufacturing inputs.

In a meeting with supermarkets and wholesalers, Tombolini looked at “inflation” data in the sensitive segment of food, drink, toiletries and cleaning, based on a report based on 15 million data points.

In November, the total “regulated” basket supplied by the 108 suppliers who signed up to the Fair Prices agreement increased by 4.2%, when the maximum guideline was 4%. This is below the cost of living for that month: 4.9%. In December, the percentage dropped to 3.5% (against the 5.1% of the CPI) and for January, Commerce forecasts an increase of 4.5%. That office estimates a new drop for February (around 3.8%) due to the impact of the 3.2% ceiling established for the next 5 months, a period that runs from February to the end of June.

“The figure is above the guideline for the exemptions envisaged for some products” (increases between 4 and 9%), authorized to guarantee the assembly of a new basket of 1,974 frozen products, which came into force at the beginning of the month.

Close to Tombolini they believe that in this way, with industry agreements with over 600 companies in 17 areas, will mark a “price path” to establish benchmarks in almost all categories with the aim of curbing the inflationary acceleration. Private consultants expected a return of around 6% for January, despite the multiplication of controls agreed by companies, with the promise to deliver official dollars (the cheapest on the market) to be able to import.

Inflation is heating up, according to the official view, not because the regulations fail but from seasonal increases in fresh products, such as meat. This basket (vegetables, fruit and legumes) is supplied by a very fragmented and difficult to control universe of producers. The same thing was able to verify the former Undersecretary of Commerce Roberto Feletti, when he threw a basket of fruit and vegetables, which did not move the ammeter.

In Tombolini’s studio they are not discouraged. They argue that in February, due to the growing influence of fair prices, the price index “will be lower than in January”, although they underline that the month “started with difficulty”. They say that most companies are convinced to join the program and that, in the long term, it will improve the level of product offerings and also compliance with the price guideline set until mid-year.