And what the forecasts predicted for the start of this long weekend unfortunately came true. This Saturday frozen in most of the productive areas and hit crops even harder.

Extreme drought and heatwaves have caused soybean and corn production to drop significantly. And now, unexpectedly, the cold has arrived. Yes, all in one challenging farming campaign for all agricultural producers.

Although significant rainfall was recorded in various production areas towards the end of January and the beginning of February, drought was the great protagonist of the campaign. And it continues to squeeze through much of the core area.

In the last week a intense heat wave. According to the Rosario Stock Exchange report, crops in the central region were subjected to temperatures above 30C for more than 50 hours between Tuesday February 7 and Monday February 13. The maximum exceeded 38°C and the extreme value was recorded from Pozo del Molle, Córdoba, with 40.3°C.

After this event, the rains should have relieved the symptoms of the thermal and hydro stress suffered. However, the BCR says the data accumulated for the past week (Friday, February 10-16) was “nowhere near” what was needed to offset the negative effects of the intense heatwave, much less mitigate the ‘high levels of accumulated deficit.

And in case something is missing, the temperature dropped sharply on Thursday and this Saturday it occurred early frosts in most of the productive regions that complicate the countryside more, which is not usual.

“In general, crops are vulnerable to frost and it occurs when the air temperature drops until ice crystals form inside their cells for a certain time. The deterioration process of plants depends on the phenological state in which they are they are found and by the species they are found in. Some of these effects can be observed in tender leaves and stems, in the destruction of a large percentage of flowers and small fruits, and even in the total death of the plant.The resistance of the crop to frost depends on the stage of development; since it is more resistant when it is in the germination period, while in flowering the damage is greater”, they remark in a work by INTA.

Before the freezes, soybean and corn production projections were still in freefall.

With the soybean planting window closed and where yields are being finalized in 31 percent of the planted area, the entity estimates 38 million tons, 10 million tons less production than originally forecast.

The Rosario Stock Exchange, on the other hand, forecasts a lower production: 34.5 million tons, which would mean the lowest harvest in 15 years.

Continuing with the data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, corn, for its part, production estimates have been reduced by 5.5 million tons compared to the initial estimates and predict 44.5 million tons of summer cereal.

Costa highlighted the impacts on the wheat supply chain, predicting a drop in exports of around 55% compared to last season, which implies a 3,000 million dollar decrease, and a 36% drop in the contribution to the gross product. For corn, exports are expected to decrease by 21%, or a decrease of 2,160 million dollars less, with a contribution to the economy of 3,600 million less dollars.

Given the importance of the soy chain, the impacts on it are those that have the greatest weight. Lower production reduces gross soybean product by $5.8 trillion from last season (26%), a decline in exports of $4.5 trillion, and the harvest would be affected by $2.3 trillion.

In summary, the impacts that drought would have on the contribution of the sector in the current scenario are an interannual decline of US$ 12,245 million in gross agro-industrial product (23%); a reduction in exports of almost 10 billion dollars (3%) and a decrease in turnover of 19%, or 3,314 million dollars.

However, he stressed that the impact could be even greater if rainfall does not return to normal in the rest of the campaign and the risk of early frosts becomes real given delays in planting progress. Thus, exports of 14,000 million dollars could be lost. And now, we need to add the frost impact.