After a somewhat turbulent start to the year, Minister Sergio Massa would have kept what he promised last December: to recover some calm in the parallel dollar. Although the exchange rate gap remains close to 100%, both the blue and the financial dollar rise far behind the rest of the cheap prices so far in February.
however, the almost constant loss of reserves by the Central Bank, the political noise generated by the starting line of a election year and the pressure of inflationthey could put Better sooner than later end to a summer exchange rate which took a long time to arrive.
He Dolar blue I finish Friday at $377A 1% down compared to the end of January. So far this year, the ticket price on the street +6.7%Of behind inflation of this period.
Something similar happens in the financial dollar: after a very tense start to the year, the Government resorted to the debt repurchasean instrument that served to “stabilize” prices.
With quotes ending last week at $355.59 AND $369.80like him MEP dollar As the calculated with the liquidation They only go up this month.
However, in the Municipality warn that these prices, results of official intervention in the bond market, they are “artificial” and so on bullish pressure is underpinning.
The Economist Fernando Marull stated: “The economy of Massa became harder, with inflation rebounding, the BCRA selling reserves, bonds falling and the global environment having stopped helping. It’s far from collapsing but, from the dynamics you see, the parallel dollar it should be one step higher“, She said.
Marull added that the “convertibility” exchange rate pinpoints the price of the parallel “closer to $400.”
This historic milestone is the one reached on Friday by the so-called “Qatar Dollar”, the price for international tourism based on the official dollar price. It is towards that price where, they warn in the City, the rest of the prices could come together of US currency.
“The conjunction of a inflationary acceleration moderate and the absence of a dollar offer substantial in the short to medium term is a shock substantial for the Argentine macro,” they warned in a report for their consulting clients Delphos Investments.
“It is surprising that the CCL remains disengaged these unfavorable prospects, remaining around a 8% below of the Qatari dollar. The exchange rate gap is about 90%below the highs seen at the end of January, perhaps reflecting positive expectations from expected government announcements,” the Delphos report added.
In this same line, Juan Pablo Albornozeconomist of Invecq, underlined: “If we analyze only the current stocks, today the equity dollar (it also applies to the CCL) should be closer to $420 compared to the $355-$370 they moved into in the last few wheels. Even if we look at the entire evolution of the dollar at today’s prices since the shares were set in 2019, 60% of the time the dollar was in higher values (at today’s prices).
According to Albornoz, parallel dollar prices remain relatively calm because the Treasury and the Central are paying very high rates (118% TEA placed in the first February auction).
“Furthermore, the banks, being able to make a bond issue, put a cap on it (they de-leveraged the dollar, so to speak) and, crucially, government intervention of finance dollars with debt buybacks,” he said. said the economist, who indicated that he expects “an upward correction” in the short term.
However, for the economist Martin Polofrom Cohen, at least one disruptive “shock” is not expected before AprilWhen I can see the real one impact of drought in terms of dollar revenue for the Central Bank.
“Still There’s time for this exchange rate calm to spread. Agriculture has to sell off a lot in the second quarter. We see possible stress on reserves, in a context of high peso debt maturities. This can fuel the pressure on the gap” Polo said.
Source: Clarin
