In 2022, economic activity grew by 5.2%, driven essentially by the growth of sectors such as automotive manufacturing, mining, agrochemical production, petroleum, commerce, restaurants and hotels, construction and the industry.
However, first signs of slowdown that have begun to show themselves in the last four months (consequence of the drought and the lack of dollars for imports) herald that these sectors they will no longer have the same vigor this year. For now, it is estimated that the evolution of the Gross Product (GDP) will range from 0% to 1%. What are the prospects for the different sectors for the rest of the year in this context?
According to the consulting firm Abeceb, production automotive sector it will return to growth, albeit at a slower pace, in the face of a domestic market limited by the scarcity of imported models, by the loss of purchasing power and by the Latin American markets which would slow down its growth rate.
Meanwhile, the production of appliances and consumer electronics will show an increase (estimated at 7.6%) because consumers will continue to “take advantage of promotions and payment facilitation programs (Ahora plans).”
According to the consultancy firm, “some sectors will escape the weakening trend”, such as knowledge services in the face of increased demand for the digitization of the economy. The growth of production gas will be around 6% and crude will grow by 13% due to higher exports and high productivity of Vaca Muerta. And construction, which finished 2022 up 3.5%, would slow to 3%.
Finally, ethe sector of Food and beverages it would grow by 3.9%, with a shift towards second brands due to a drop in real wages, says economist Soledad Perez Duhalde.
Santiago Manoukian, economist at Ecolatina, explains that the industry -in general- is affected the shortage of foreign exchange and the drought which will reduce the flow of foreign exchange to agriculture. “This is the main surplus sector and it has to finance the trade deficit of the rest of the sectors, such as industry and commerce,” he stresses. According to the analyst, it is expected a 25% to 30% decline in the volume of the wheat-corn-soybean tandem which will also affect related businesses.
“The industry will be affected by that context. On the other hand, the oil, gas, mining and services sectors will need to boost economic activity against the moderation of the rest,” he summed up.
“As for the pre-pandemic, the sector of Hotels and restaurants It continues with a 13% lower activity level, while “other service activities” (community, personnel, etc.) are down 10%, i.e. they still have ground to catch up,” said the Ecolatina expert. For this reason, surely the government’s bet will be on sectors that require less imports for their functioning,” he said.
Among the sectors that started off without stimuli this year, there is the wood industry. From the Federation of the Wood Industry (FAIMA), which has just made a diagnosis of the situation in the sector, its owner, Roman Queiroz, described that: “currently, There is more supply than demand on the market.
“There are medium and small sawmills in Misiones, Corrientes and part of Entre Ríos that have serious problems. Some are at a standstill and have not restarted after the year-end closure, they are overloaded and there are already plants at a standstill in Misiones. If we don’t find short-term solutions, there will start to be layoffs,” the industry benchmark said.
Source: Clarin
