From

George Castro

International analyst

The world economy is projected to grow by 1.5% annually in 2023 according to the International Monetary Fund, with the United States in a recessionary situation, like the European Union led by Germany, while the the People’s Republic would expand by 5.2% annuallymore than 1 point above the international organization’s previous December last year forecast.

The most important fact is that the fracture produced in the global chains of high technology and in the world energy systemcaused by the War in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and the European Union, caused a drop of 1.2% in the year, with the addition that this loss would increase in the next 12/24 months.

This means that the main drag and recession factor in the global economy in 2022/2023 was a strictly geopolitical eventwhich is the Ukrainian war, and its derivation, the rupture and the confrontation between the United States and China.

There is a US offensive, both by the Executive and by Congress, destined to stop – and at least reverse – the growth of the People’s Republic, above all in the decisive aspect of high technologyespecially the one that makes the full deployment of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (CRI).

This crucial point was highlighted last year by Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, when she warned that the Ukrainian war added to the conflict between the 2 superpowers (US and China) is the most serious and full of consequences of the current crises.

These crises resulting from the war in Ukraine are energy (the cost of energy has increased by more than 700% in the last 2 years); food, especially between Russia and Ukraine, which has caused a decrease of over 30% in the supply of cereals in the world; and inflationary (driven by the rise in energy prices), which has unleashed a recessionary situation in Europe, centered on Germany.

The IMF points out that this break – also called “de-globalization” – It has already caused a 7-point loss in global output, which can lead to a 12% or more reduction in international system GDP.

The most affected by this situation is obviously the world economy and above all international trade, which transforms over 80% through global production chains. But Secondly, the most affected by this fracture are the United States itself, which is at the head of the integrated transnational production system. (consisting of transnational corporations), and 44% of the world’s corporations are North American and only 25% are Chinese.

As for the People’s Republic, for 2 years, your main business partner It is no longer the European Union or the USA, but ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Countries) – which is emerging and Asia is developing -, and which together with the People’s Republic already represents over 60% of the global economy and growing twice as fast as the international average.

This is happening in a global economy expected to reach $100 trillion or more this year, implying that this crisis can cumulatively lead to losses of between $7 trillion and $12 trillion annually.

THE The countries most affected by this fundamental break are emerging and developing countriesas well as sectors with fewer resources in the advanced world.

What draws attention – and raises the alarm – about the “de-globalization” offensive that the United States is carrying out at this moment against China is that the world’s first superpower resorts to interventionist and statist tools, profoundly arbitrary and foreign to the organic process of capitalist accumulationwhich he always considered typical of socialist or communist regimes.

The United States won World War I and World War II, as well as ending the Cold War with the absolute defeat of the Soviet Union, betting on his immense and seemingly inexhaustible capacity for innovationchanneling through their exceptional ability to mobilize resources the passion to invest, innovate and consume inherent in their civilization (the so-called “animal spirits”).

This is the characteristic, indelible genius of American civilization, the “exceptional” country by definition, to quote Alexis de Tocqueville; and now, suddenly, in an extraordinary and profoundly negative demonstration of the collapse of his self-esteem, The United States has opted for statist interventionism with a bureaucratic seal.

A sign that historically the United States has lost – hopefully only suspended – that self-confidence that made it conquer the continents and prevail in all world conflicts.

AND the loss of self-esteem, this rejection of their exceptional identity, coincides with the moment of maximum polarization and internal confrontation since the Civil War of 1861/1865, and with the validity of one of the weakest and most faltering presidencies in American history, that of President Joe Biden.

In the race with China time is not in favor of America., if not the other way around. The situation is very risky.