The economists’ surveys on the evolution of inflation in the second month of the year, which had already been completed, concluded in February show variations ranging from 5.7% to 6.4%. With which, if these measures are similar to those reported by INDEC, interannual inflation will have been reached. above 100% for the first time since 1991.
As weekly surveys of different consultants have shown, heFoods lead price hikes in February. data that will be officially announced on March 14th. Other items that put pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) -over the period- are Recreation, Private Medicine, Mobile and Cable Services and Housing Costs, due to tariff updates.
Among the more cautious forecasts, the Freedom and Progress Foundation estimated that inflation in February will rise by 5.7%. “In other words, it presented a slight deceleration (0.3 percentage points) compared to the January figure”, he highlighted, despite this the year-on-year variation reached three figures and stood at 100.7%, exceeding 98.8% in January According to the consultant, “there are already 13 consecutive months in which inflation accelerates on an annual basis, doubling compared to the value in January 2022 (50.7%)”.
At the other extreme, the February CPI calculated by the consultancy firm Orlando Ferreres & Associates (GBA), reached 6.4% monthly and recorded inter-year growth of 101.5%. Meanwhile, core inflation – that which excludes the variation of seasonal products – increased at a monthly rate of 6.7%, marking an annual increase of 99.4%. By this measure, this year’s accumulated headline inflation reached 14.9% and core inflation accumulated 11.4% in February.
On this metric, the top items driving the month’s increases were Food, Beverage and Health, which posted monthly increases of 9.0% and 7.7%, respectively. Recreation and Transport and Communications follow, with a variation of 6.8% and 5.5% respectively.
Regarding goods and services seasonal, the variation recorded was 6.6% per month, while the Regulated Prices increased by 5.7% per month. Among the seasonal ones, the prices of fruit and vegetables stand out in recent months. For this reason, the Ministry of Commerce has extended the Fair Price agreements to these products (see aside).
Other forecasts for rising inflation in February are those of IPC Online of Bahía Blanca which estimated a 5.5% increase; the one of Analytica, which calculated an average price movement of 5.8%, and that of C&T, which estimated an increase of 6.2%.
For his part, the consultant Eco Go, 6.4% increase forecast essentially driven by an acceleration in food prices which stood at an average of 7.8%. “Without counting the increases in meat, the increase in food would have given 5.6%,” commented Sebastián Menescaldi, an economist at that consulting firm.
Santiago Casas, economist at Libertad y Progreso, recalls that February “is a month with a strong demand for money due to seasonal effects, In March, the inflationary outlook will be worse due to rising transport prices and falling demand for money. Monthly inflation is most likely to restart from 6, making the design of budget projections clear,” she opined.
Furthermore, according to Ecolatina, this year will be difficult for the electoral aspirations of the governing party”.with economic growth at 0% and inflation around 100%without improvements compared to what was highlighted in 2022 “.
Source: Clarin
