February it has not been a good month for financial assets. In a context of high global volatility, major Wall Street indices closed lower. The market closely followed the signals of a “rogue inflation” in the US, and fears of further tightening by the Federal Reserve (FED, the central bank) marked the markets.
In this context, Argentine stocks and bonds closed lower, after trying a rally last month. The fall of bonds impacted on country riskwhich closed this month at 1,958 points, which implies an increase of almost 8% from last month.
“The market has changed its expectations in recent weeks. It assigns an 80% probability to a further 25 basis point hike in the key interest rate by the Fed and a 20% probability to a 50 basis point hike. weeks earlier the market assigned only a 6% probability that the benchmark rate would increase by 50 basis points, while at the beginning of the month the probability was almost zero,” said Nicolás Max, of Criteria.
What happened in Argentina was not just a reaction to political uncertainty: corporate papers and debt securities down in all emerging countries. However, the punishment for Argentine goods was worse: while emerging debt fell 3.8% on average, dollarised bonds ended the month with reds above 8%.
The dollar debt buyback announced by the government in mid-January has not had the desired effect. He Global 2030, the most traded bond within this schedule, ended the month with a drop of 8.61%. Reds have stopped short of erasing the improvements bonds are showing this year, even as prices are rising from zero.
In the bag. the Merval reflected global pessimism and closed more than 2% down when measured in dollars at cash-settled prices.
“The local market, as far as equities are concerned, has shown more volatility throughout the month. Top panel assets finished the last round with prices stained red, although a correction in equities was to be expected for the strong rise they have had in recent times,” said Priscila Bruno, from Rava.
THE winning company of the month, which managed to close positively on Wall Street and in Buenos Aires, it was believablewhich ended with a 12% increase in dollars in New York and the same in pesos in the local market.
Financial assets that have increased the most:
- Rigoleau 14.6%
- Agronomists 13.3%
- Commercial Silver 13.1%
- Professional 13 12.4%
- Cresud 11.6%
- Pair $10.4%
- TX28 10.1%
- BBVA Bank 9.9%
- Near par 9.8%
- TX26 9.5%
Those who have lowered the most
- Endesa Costanera -27.3%
- GDP Coupon $ -19.6%
- Television -16.3%
- Consultation -16.2%
- Clarin Group -14.4%
- Telecom -13.6%
- Cellulose -13.1%
- Ledesma -12.8%
- Ternio Argentina -12.0%
- AL29 -11.7%
Dollar, fixed term, soy, oil and gold
- Fixed term 30 days 6.0%
- BADLAR 5.9%
- Wholesale Dollar 5.4%
- Euros 1.9%
- Merval -2.4%
- Oil (WTI) -2.5%
- S&P 500 -2.6%
- Soy -3.2%
- Gold (Troy Ounces) -5.2%
NEITHER
Source: Clarin
