Without the formalization of the “flexibility” of the reserve target agreed with the Fund, the Central Bank continues to sell dollars from its coffers to contain demand on the foreign exchange market. This Thursday, he parted ways with $66 million, the highest sale so far this month. And it has already been sold 195 million dollars since the beginning of March.
Meanwhile, in the parallel market, the blue dollar regained its bullish strength: it went up $7 and closed at $378. Ticket goes up $24 since early 2023, up 6%, far behind the inflation forecast for this first two months. The market is eagerly awaiting confirmation of a change in targets agreed with the Fund after 10 days have passed since the Government gave it as fact.
After the IMF’s request to the government to put aside the debt repurchase program, to intervene on the financial market, stock prices “came out of the freezer”: both MEP dollar and cash with advance settlement this Wednesday. Both prices pile up increases of 3.4% and 3.3% respectively, so far in March.
The tense calm of the informal market contrasts with the dynamics of the wholesale segment, where demand from the importing sector does not subside, agricultural incomes have returned to their lowest levels and the Central Bank is unable to stop the bleeding of reserves, after closing his worst February in 20 years for their participation in the foreign exchange market. Since 2023 started, the body has already lost $1,282 million.
The wholesale dollar was up 27 cents a $199.95. Trader Gustavo Quintana underlined: “The wholesale dollar’s flow rate falls. In the first three days of this week rose $1.67 versus a $1.89 increase over the same period from the previous week.” Despite the uncertainty, the exchange differential remains below 90%
The body chaired by Miguel Pesce monitors the evolution of inflation and started using formal dollar as “mini anchor”, to avoid a further acceleration in prices. “The inflation outlook for March would indicate that the BCRA has been devaluing below inflation in recent weeks. Whether this trend will continue in the coming days will need to be monitored,” they said in Delphos.
In the city they expect the government to announce, sooner or later, new benefits for exporting sectors to go back, even partially, the reds of the Centrale. Several traders agreed that exchange rate differentials, such as the recently announced “companion dollar”, would not move the needle and that only a third round of a specialized dollar for soybeans could change the outlook.
“Following the Government’s announced relaxation of reserve targets, the market expects a new “soybean” dollar. to improve the Central Bank’s foreign exchange balance, albeit at the cost of more monetary issuance,” they said in Delphos.
“In any event, the total foreign exchange supply for this year will be substantially lower than last year due to the effects of the extreme drought,” the consultancy warned.
AQ
Source: Clarin
