In a market attentive to the outcome of the conversion of debt into pesos promoted by Sergio Massa this Thursday and which is beginning to take note of the effects of drought, the central bank maintained its trickle of reserves. This Thursday the body got rid of 47 million dollars, which brings the negative balance for March to over 240 million dollars.
The good news came from the informal market, where the blue dollar deflated and fell $5 to $373. In the opposite direction, and in a trend that has been recorded since the beginning of the month, share prices have remained stable: the euro deputy dollar, or Stock Exchange, appreciated by 0.7% and closed at $374.07; while settled cash rose 2.3% and closed at a new nominal record of nearly $388.
The market is closely following the evolution of reserves and is impatient the lack of definition by the International Monetary Fund on a “flexibility” in the objectives that the government had disclosed. All this in a context where the impact of the drought is beginning to be inevitable in current numbers and even in the most optimistic projections.
The Central Bank is going through a very negative start to the year: Precisely because of its interventions in the so-called single and free foreign exchange market, the agency has already sold 1,334 million dollars of its own reserves. Added to this are the net sales linked to the debt repurchase programme, promoted by the Ministry of the Economy since the second half of January.
Market impatience can be seen in the recent jump in financial prices. So far in March, settled cash is up nearly 6%, well above inflation over the first nine days. For Cohen’s Juan José Vazquez, the movements of the financial dollar this month “are logical according to the context”.
“It had been lateralizing since January Against a backdrop of high inflation, a perceived shortage of dollars due to drought and election fears, smaller increases in the short tranche of Treasuries following Powell’s congressional filing led some to call for cable,” Vazquez said.
Along the same lines Pablo Repetto, of Aurum Valores: “There was a critical mass for this increase to occur. It could have been triggered by the announcement of the stock market, by the more adverse global context, by the recognition that the government will not be able to accumulate foreign currency and, still incipient, the dramatic drought which will generate greater difficulties for the economy in general (not only for foreign currency but also for the lower collection and the effects on activity)”.
As for the drought, for Repetto “The effect has not yet been incorporated, either financially or in fact”. In the coming weeks, if the government maintains the position of “not touching” the official dollar, the exchange rate gap could widen.
In the City they agree that, mainly due to the impact of the worst harvest in 14 years, the financial dollar “still looks cheap”. “Everything would indicate that the upward path has just begun,” PPI analysts said. Furthermore, in light of the inflationary acceleration, the consultancy firm noted that in recent weeks, rates in pesos have begun to lose their attractiveness, which would be an additional boost for the dollarisation of some sectors.
Source: Clarin
