100 days of strong economic and political uncertainty begin

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In the middle of a working lunch, the president of a major construction company with state contracts received a phone call with comforting news: Economy told them it would unblock the payments until January 2024.

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The measure has obvious support: Sergio Massa wants to keep public works active in an election year and he knows it full well much of his political fortune is at stake in the next 100 days.

In this context, the result of the debt swap with which the government managed to refinance 57% of the $7.5 trillion in bonds maturing until July.

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The exchange erased part of a very limited financial horizon for the government due to the lack of dollars and the resulting “wall” get funding until after the election end of the year.

THE Forecasts of lower foreign exchange earnings from grain exports are extended weekly due to the Drought (The losses are estimated to be between 15,000 and 20,000 million US dollars compared to the previous campaign) and the rest of the exports would not be able to compensate for losses of this size.

THE Automotive industry could increase its exports by about 1,500 million US dollars and the energy import saving it could mean a lot. These are important figures but clearly smaller than the loss suffered by the agricultural sector, which the Government should also help.

With fewer dollars, the path chosen by the government will be there limitation on the payment of importsintensifying a trap which, as usual with this type of protracted measures, begins to be generated alternative routes to outwit him.

The economy awaits the dollars International Monetary Fund be able to pay the agency the sum of US$ 2,700 million due this month in a context where the central bank is the only net seller of dollars.

As if there were no difficulties for emerging countries, US job creation reached 311,000 in February, beating forecasts and paving the way for the Federal Reserve to increase the rate more steeply of interest that serves as a reference for the Western economy.

The backlash from that assumption (the Treasury rate was believed to max out at 5% a year and is now speculating at 6%) was seen in another decline Friday battered Argentine dollar bonds which once again offer sidereal returns of over 30% per annum and which find no buyers.

After 100 days of economic uncertainty (how many dollars will come in from exports, will inflation consolidate its march at 100% per annum or not?) the political issues.

The deadline for submitting the lists of pre-candidates expires on 24 June for the year-end presidential election and until then, Argentines will participate in a new ball of names and nominations.

Alberto Fernández, Cristina Kirchner, Mauricio Macri, Javier Milei, Gerardo Morales, Patricia Bullrich, Eduardo de Pedro, Juan Grabois, Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, Sergio Massa, Facundo Manes, Juan Schiaretti These will be just some of the names at stake that enter the electoral schedule platform.

The 100 days of uncertainty will also be with respect to the moment and the path chosen for the hedging process of individuals and companies facing elections.

Questions about whether it will be better the rate, bonds, stocks or the dollar They will appear on savers’ radars, but fund investments aim to answer two deeper dilemmas: 1) whether there will be a serious plan control inflation and 2) whether there will be any anti-inflation program gradual or shock.

Economic uncertainty is gaining ground again despite the fact that the Government has given up step towards financial decompression managing to refinance more than half of the maturities of the debt in pesos overdue up to July. Do you now have more possibilities to increase public spending?

With the imaginary figure of the wizard pulling rabbits out of his hat, a period begins where the Minister Sergio Massa must intensify the search, even if it concerns hareswhich look like 1 and 2 soybean dollar rabbits, which can bring dollars to the Central Bank.

Source: Clarin

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