Knowing February inflation (higher than expected), private consultancy forecast for March a figure close to 7%. If the data is confirmed, It would be the 4th consecutive month with price acceleration after the drop recorded in November last year, which was 4.9%. “Historically, March tends to be a month with monthly inflation above the average for the rest of the year, due to the impact of seasonal increases in clothing (season change) and education (school starts).” summarized Santiago Romero Manoukian, from Ecolatina. .
In general, the consultants recalculate on the basis of the data disclosed this Tuesday by INDEC. That being the case, and despite the tightening and expansion of controls under the banner of the Fair Prices programme, specialists warn that with this dynamic it will be very difficult to meet the 60% guideline for the whole year promised by Economy Minister Sergio Massa. “Why does this happen, between March and December, inflation should average 3.5% per month“, underlines Romero Manoukian. As Massa had promised: that from March the CPI “would restart with 3”.
“For now, prices like transport indexed to the CPI complicate the situation, sets an upper limit on annual inflation and brings down the government’s disinflation expectations”, interprets Sebastián Menescaldi, of Eco Go. Ecolatin predicts the impact of several boosts: private schools (16.4%); prepaid (between 5% and 7.7% depending on income); subway fares (38%); fuels (3.8%); trains and buses (6%); water and gas and taxi rates (30%).
“With the February data -says Guido Lorenzo, director of LCG- it is very unlikely that we will see a record in March below 7%. Our measurements have already shown an acceleration in March at the hands of regulated prices on which these data show that they are traveling on an even greater inertia than expected.” Per LCG, inflation in 2023 is very likely to close in the triple digits.
Cumulative inflation in the first two months of the year is 13.1%. Analysts who measure the evolution of prices agree that the jump in February was higher than expected, even if in recent weeks they had already warned of a general acceleration of gondolas and shop windows. Equilibra is another of the consultancies forecasting 7% for March, but “I shouldn’t give much more”, explains the economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravigna.
According to INDEC, inflation in February was 6.6% and therefore the interannual cost of living rose to 102.5%. It is the first time since 1991, i.e. in the last 32 years, that Argentina has signed up an annual triple-digit price increase. The last time was in 1991, before the convertibility law. To make matters worse, the category that increased the most last month was food and beverage, which has amassed a 9.8% increase over the past 30 days.
This is precisely the most sensitive item for the most vulnerable families, who allocate a significant part of their income to the purchase of basic products that make up the basic food basket. “Our measurements have already shown an acceleration in March due to the regulated prices on which this figure (due to February inflation) shows that they travel on even greater inertia than expected“, underlines Lorenzo, director of LCG.
Source: Clarin
