There is no way to find good news, or at least encouraging news, in the sea of data that exists within the February price index. And if you just have to look among those daunting, remarkable, loaded with social and political connotations, is the violent increase in the cost of food.
According to national statistics, there are 9.8% in February; 102.6% annually and no less than 388% since Kirchnerism returned to power. If you prefer to focus on the impoverished and neglected suburbs of Buenos Aires, we have: 10.9% for February or almost 11% in just one month and 385% compared to the beginning of 2020.
A couple of samples from overflow within overflow they jump when you go to the difference between the increase in the cost of food versus the 348% increase in the overall index. Equally impressive, in the first case the gap is 40 percentage points round and 37 in the GBA.
We are talking, if necessary, about most of the time irreplaceable consumptionof those who weigh heavily in the pockets of low-income families and express, like few others, the decrease in real wages.
The INDEC data tell us, in fact, that for those occupying the lowest rung of the social pyramid, food represents the 34.5% of the cost, up to 36% if you go down to the first basement.
Expression of the difference in income and purchasing power, the impact is reduced to 15.7% at the top step of the pyramid. And since in both segments the share that goes to transport, housing and services is similar, the surplus is called saving capacity or access to definitely uneven ways of life.
of a similar kind, 25% of households with greater resources concentrate their purchases in supermarkets, In other words, in shops where there are many signs with fair prices and where, presumably, the prices are lower. On the other side, 35% pay more and in cash in specialized or local businesses, such as bakeries, butchers and greengrocers.
In the process of insisting on the inequalities of the unequal world and always on the basis of pure data, we now have that, Measured by the cost of food, the income of 9.2 million informal wage earners has decreased by 39.5% since 2017.
It bears insisting that it is half of the country’s workforce, workers without basic employment and social security coverage, who are not unionized but quite the opposite, who are marginalized in some way.
According to the same measure of inequality, for private employees in the white the loss goes back to 23% and is around 27% in the public sector. In both cases, unionized wage earners and therefore covered by parity.
It often happens, with economics and with some of the so-called social sciences, that numbers tell things better than a few words. And it also happens that this clarification is used to continue shooting numbers.
That said, what comes, even from INDEC, says this 40.9% of the 9.2 million informal wage earners come from the suburbs of Buenos Aires. That is, almost 3.8 million precarious workers, certainly in a situation of poverty.
Problems of the territory on which Christianity is strongly committed and allocates resources in quantity, the poverty indicator recorded 39.8% at the beginning of 2019. And since the last record indicated 42%, the result suggests that despite the effort put in the field it doesn’t subside or worse, it grows.
Something is wrong with Axel Kicillof’s management. And the bombastic eulogy that the governor dedicates to the vice president whenever the opportunity presents itself does not solve it. This is another thing.
Hard numbers, again, that it is not possible to sweep away with projects or with endless speeches. And that they survive the rantings that promise to create jobs and that exalt the equal role of work, that ponder the role of SMEs and speak of sustained economic growth that is difficult to find.
Tasks for the Ministry of Social Development run by Victoria Tolosa Paz, an official who canceled 80,000 Work Plans and who prides himself on being there to “take care of the most vulnerable”, i.e. several million seemingly neglected people.
Meanwhile, inflation continues its course. The data from the Basic Food Basket, for subsistence, mark 115% in the last twelve months and 111% in the case of the broader basket that defines poverty. All clearly played at 100 percent.
Contributions to the general picture warn the estimates of the consultants who have been following the price trend for years The March index starts with 7 and that of food is around 7.4%. So Q1 2023 is marching right into the 20% or 25% zone if it’s the ever-high cost of food.
Just to compare and use the figures to adjust for each, January-March 2022 had given 16.1% and the same period as the initial 2020, a staggering 7.8% at this point.
Nothing was missing on the road to superinflation K: there were maximum prices, controlled and regulated, various and unclear squeezes, rewards, punishments and exchanges. Nothing or almost nothing that we don’t know and nothing that even remotely resembles a project.
Everything, finally, spent, definitively ineffective Kirchnerist arsenal.
Comment from an economist who knows the makings: “Something strange is happening with the parity. As if there were some moves agreed with certain union leaders, it seems that the idea is to trample the negotiation, not cause a stir and present the agreements with the 60% stamp duty to see if inflation begins to ease.
In other words, it sounds like trampling on parities or manipulating them convert wages into an adjustment variable. Or insist on a method that is already being used, and is being used to all intents and purposes, including retirement, with inflation skyrocketing.
And even when there are protagonists of the Kirchnerist cause, the wave is with Sergio Massa and, more precisely, aims to put Sergio Massa and his presidential aspirations in the bank.
The economist who knows the stuff continues: “Sergio is very impressed by uncontrolled inflation and he has fewer and fewer bullets left, but she still retains Cristina’s endorsement, perhaps because she seems to be the most planted candidate to hold the electoral procession and keep 30% of the electorate”. Or simply because you don’t have a better one.
It is worth specifying that it is the gaze of those who were close to Massa and have distanced themselves from Massa.
Other views on the scarcity of alternatives K go to the capacity-inability di Cristina to bring together and build solid and qualified structures, despite her two presidencies and the current vice-presidency. If you prefer, despite the 11 years at the top plus the time she was senator number one.
Of course, he doesn’t qualify for that function the Camporà, a confused conglomerate, populated by opportunists, who present themselves in the role of heirs. Nor the Homeland Institute, famous for its metal sheets and some tinsel and unknown for its contributions to the political and economic debate.
It’s what takes center stage, messy and improvised everywhere. And of all that there is, it’s hard to find where the Government hangs on to argue that “People come first.” Actually, first there is propaganda.
Charles Arterburn is a seasoned business journalist for News Rebeat, where he provides comprehensive coverage of the latest trends and developments in the world of finance and economics.