After a week of global high tension and with the confirmation of the worsening of various local indicators, the market will resume operations this Monday with attention focused on the US Federal Reserve decision and the effects of “coordinated actions” announced by the central banks of major economies to prevent the banking crisis from spreading.
There are many factors that ignite the Notices in the city but, after the inflation data in February and the certainty that overheating in prices will continue to be high also in March, what worries the local market the most these days is the persistent drop in the Central Bank’s international reserves and the renewed pressure on financial changes.
The body chaired by Miguel Pesce andturnover of US$871 million in the foreign exchange market since the beginning of March and accumulated turnover of US$1,820 million since January. It’s the worst start to a year since records have been kept. The decline in agricultural income, due to the side effect of the last soybean dollar in December which brought forward the liquidation of many producers, added to the impact of the drought, affects the Central’s coffers.
The figure is no less if we take into account that in the second edition of the stimulus program for exporting producers, the Central managed to capture 3 billion dollars: that is to say, in little more than two and a half months it “evaporated” a little more 60% of what he collected.
“The BCRA continues to lose an average of $80 million a day, Thus, net reserves decrease by $3.9 billion,” said Fernando Marull, economist at FYM Asociados. “In this sense, the IMF has come out in favor of changing targets due to the impact of the increased drought, although it has not yet provided details of numbers, nor has it recommended extraordinary measures,” he recalled.
For Marull, the fragility reflected in the MULC is the prelude to “new measures around a new soybean dollar, a dollar for regional economies, more disbursements or more inventories.”
In this same sense, the Delphos analysts recalled: “The trend in the first quarter of 2023 points to be the worst since the quarter of September and November 2020, which triggered, among other measures, a sharp tightening of the exchange rate. However, the cause of today’s imbalance must be sought in the supply of foreign exchange, which was severely limited this year due to the sharp decline in agricultural production”.
Once again, the exchange rate gap is the indicator that marks the level of market uncertainty. With cash with liquidation, the price that companies use to become dollarized, which closed above $403 on Friday, the distance with the official It was close to 100% again.
The financial exchange rate has already risen more than 17% since the beginning of the year. However, analysts warn that it may still have a long way to go. And while the central bank’s recent rate hike may aim to reduce, even partially, the appetite for dollarisation, there is a combination of factors that could continue to push the dollar into the parallel market.
One is undoubtedly the inflationary acceleration in a context of drought and declining reserves. Added to this are external volatility, fluctuations on international markets after the still widespread banking crises and the typical uncertainty of pre-election times. they can erase the exchange rate “benefits” of rising rates.
“We do not rule out that the gap will reach a new high in 2023 in the five months to STEP given mounting external tensions,” they said in Delphos and added: “We believe the BCRA should increase the pace of the creeping peg to about 6 .5% per month, lest we deepen exchange arrears amid the devaluation of much of the region’s currencies.”
Source: Clarin
