Cash con liqui or CCL, the way companies use to get foreign currency out of the country, has five wheels trading above 400 pesos. This Monday ended in $401.6, with a gap of 95% to the wholesale dollar, which it has achieved $204.6.
After several weeks of stagnation over the summer, liquidity with liquidity reawakened in March, after the government stopped intervening in this market.
In the first two months of the year, the economic team tried to trample alternative dollars through the purchase of bonds – the means of making dollars in this way, avoiding stocks – to support the price of Argentine bonds. To access cash with liquidity or MEP, you have to buy Argentine bonds in pesos and sell them at their dollar price.
With government intervention, the bond price slowed its fall. But when, at the request of the IMF, which demanded that the reserves not be used for this purpose, the Ministry of the Economy withdrew from this operationthe MEP and the CCL have become more expensive.
So far this year, the CCL has advanced 16.7%, one percentage point above the change in the official exchange rate.
In turn, the MEP dollar, which is traded on the Buenos Aires stock market, closed at $387.6 , after an 18% increase so far this year. In the parallel segment, blue is swapped to $386a jump of 11.5% in 2023.
All variants of the dollar have been below inflation this year, which The first quarter should end at 21%.
After the escalation of the last few days, the question running through the market is how far finance dollars could go.
How far will it go
“The Equilibrium Dollar could be between $420 and $440, At this rate, buying the MEP dollar at around $390 looks like a good deal. There is room to continue climbing, especially since then many investors will close their peso positions to begin the dollarization process“, underlines the economist Salvador Di Stéfano.
“We have manifestly weak reserves, a very low harvest outlook and very high peso monetary liabilities. All of this leads us to a combination where it is very difficult for alt dollars to stay below the 100.0% gap.DiStefano says.
For Martín Calveira, of the IAE Business School, “the ‘equilibrium’ dollar estimated by IAE-Austral (dollar value according to the average real exchange rate for the period December 2010-February 2023) in the effective formal retail market price would be of $408.6 (including privileges). In fact, the current exchange rate would be 14.2% lower than this value and would depend on future inflation, i.e. on a greater exchange lag”.
The Capital Foundation points out that to estimate what the price of financial dollars should be, the ratio between monetary liabilities that already exceed 16.9 trillion dollars and the gross reserves of the Central Bank of 38,331 million dollars is measured. “This ratio is approximately $441, above current parallel exchange values and trending upwards.”
For the IEB financial group, the theoretical value of the CCL is $433. “The market sentiment in this regard is clear: there are no operators who see the CCL as ‘cheap’. In other words, market expectations are clearly bullish.“.
AQ
Source: Clarin
