The soy campaign continues to deliver bad news. The strong loss of harvest due to drought has now been added to by the fall in international prices which have reached their lowest level in the last 6 months.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has projected that soybean production for this campaign will be 25 million tons, 42% less than the previous year and becomes the lowest soybean harvest since the 2000/2001 campaign.
The Rosario Stock Exchange also significantly lowered its soybean estimates last week to 27 million tons.
The weather was instrumental in the dramatic decline in soybean production. First of all, the drought that has hit us since June last year. later the early frosts in the month of February were added. And finally the latest heat wave that hit the country from February 27 to March 17, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees for several days in a row.
Added to all this is the decline that the harvest has been experiencing internationally in recent weeks. This Thursday closed for the third day in a row on low e it fell to US$521 (2%) in the Chicago market, the lowest value since November 17. Therefore, since this Monday, the price of the bean has lost almost 5%.
“Soybean market extends losses due to fundamental data. Soybean market is pressured by expected record crop in Brazil (of 153 million tons) amid drought-affected production prospects in Argentina,” he said . Stephen MoscarielloCommercial manager at DRC (Díaz Riganti Cereals).
The specialist added that Brazil is expected to export 96 million tonnes of soybeans this year, which would set a record, according to a Tuesday forecast by agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult.
“The Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter of a point, indicating it remains concerned about inflation despite the banking turmoil. The Fed’s decision, which pushed interest rates to a range of 4.75% and 5%, predicting a further rate hike in 2023, has been one of the most followed for years”, remarked Moscariello, adding a new bearish factor for oilseeds.
Soybean by-products accompanied bean losses today, where Argentina is the export leader, with oil prices falling 4.52% ($54.45) to $1,150.13 per ton, while flour it dropped 2.94% (USD 14.66) to stabilize at US$483.13 per tonne.
Source: Clarin
