There is an order from Sergio Massa to the Customs and the Secretary of Commerce planted in the middle of the sea of emergencies, improvisations and distortions without end that has become the official economy. According to those who know the details of this movement, the slogan works like a green light always on and aimed at the dollars that the exploitation of Dead cow.
In INDEC’s words, it is about importing “submerged arc welded pipes, iron, steel (…) used in oil and gas pipelines”. Clearer, are the pipes entering, free of work and stock, for the Gas pipeline “Nestor Kirchner”. which in a first stage will unite the towns of Trabayén, in Neuquén, and Saliqueló, in Buenos Aires, to then continue up to Santa Fe.
Very justified given the general picture, the urgency of Massa is paired with the loss of central bank reserves and it takes the form, in principle, of a package of 1,800 million dollars a year that the country would save on energy imports.
If you prefer to see it from the back, US$1.8 billion which is actually unconventional oil and gas production, of the schist type, from Vaca Muerta. In other words, the only type of hydrocarbon that really grows here and comes from a space where Neuquén reigns without competition.
It is clear that the transfer does not solve the problem of dependence on foreign countries which began violently in 2011, in full Christianity, when Energy imports increased by 108% to $9.8 billion.
On the other side of the coin, national production is sustained, with great difficulty, by what Vaca Muerta generates. Always growing, in the case of gas it already represents 55% of the total and 42% in oil.
Returning to the green hole, the 2022 INDEC numbers condemn foreign purchases for impressive 12,868 million dollars, of which nearly 8,900 million remained diesel, liquefied natural gas and natural gas. They are also a record of the impact on international prices caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Perhaps a more precise picture of the situational picture comes from the balance between exports and imports of that year. He scores a $4.47 billion deficit and then reveals that the $1.8 billion savings Vaca Muerta would generate at the start helps, but only helps until then.
For the time being, and thanks to Massa’s free customs clearance, a key objective of the operation seems close to being achieved: the Néstor K pipeline would be finished and operational from 20 June. “It wouldn’t be a big deal if it took a few weeks, but it has to weigh in winter”says an entrepreneur in the sector.
Regret means willingness to face-avoid black-outs and political costs which, in the midst of an electoral campaign, could generate the fragility of a system tied by strings. Plus, of course, any foreign currency savings.
It seems hyped that if Vaca Muerta rules the whole line and the Central Bank scrapes the bottom of the pot for dollars that are in short supply, there are many companies that pay the cost of the lack of imported inputs. Predictable in a regimen in more ways than one administered with the fingersoutput gaps coexist with notable exceptions to the rule.
What’s coming from another lane and whistling is some bars playing evaluate. According to data from specialists, in June there would be increases in Edesur and Edenor of the order of 70% for users considered to be low-income and 136%, or more than 136%, in the high-income classes.
In gas, the information points to an initial average of 35% but towards the 200% that would accumulate between the winter of 2022 and the coming winter of 2023. Everywhere you look, an adjustment in the middle of election season compliant with the provisions of the agreement with the Monetary Fund.
To the bar of hasty, confused decisions and in addition to dubious benefits, the slap that the Kirchner government has hit to the dollarized bonds of ANSeS has just been added. Comes with prepo weighting and Cristina’s approval built in.
One idea is to use them to intervene in the foreign exchange market so that, when the time comes, they serve to contain, say, the most disruptive dollars: settled cash and MEP, which companies trade and which can trigger worrying turmoil. It would, again, be a way to preserve reserves.
The problem or one of the problems facing the operation appears in the growing distrust aroused by the government and government measures, as well as the increasing pressure on BCRA cash as it shrinks.
It proves that, in case evidence is needed, the leap of 9% that country risk has reached in just a couple of dayssince the measure was known.
Very specific, the pressures appear in a report by the former Central Bank and current director of the Capital Foundation, Carlos Pérez.
With Martín Redrado already integrated into Horacio Rodríguez Larreta’s squads, Pérez calculates that net reserves, of the available type, have dropped to about $1.4 billion, which is like ten days of low imports. Therefore, compared to almost 9,100 million US dollars at the beginning of the year, the foreign exchange loss is approximately 7,600 million US dollars.
There is everything in that burraco. There are payments to the IMF and bondholders, sales of BCRA to the private sector estimated at $1.96 trillion, and anticipations of the decline in agricultural exports that has been driven by the great drought. There, Pérez expects a profit of $18.3 billion and close to $20 billion, they say in the grain market.
Is it possible that the slap of the dollarized bonds of the ANSeS serves to close at least a part of this hole? Some large operators doubt and doubt, among other things, the real value at which those securities can be traded.
Of course, there’s no doubt about it audacity, self-confidence and impunity with which Kirchnerism deals. Now he is getting his hands on a fund originally created and established with resources that were administered by the AFJP and nationalized around November 2008, at the time of Cristina president and Boudou director of ANSeS.
It will be seen whether retirees will benefit from this new slap or whether it will be a question of believing in miracles. Meanwhile, what we have before us warns us that retirees lose all over the field and always.
Data from a research center linked to the Kirchnerist CTA reveal that, compared to 2019 and discounting inflation, the real minimum income drops by 9.7% and collapses by 24% if the reference is 2015. The report, prepared by FIGURE, clarifies that the 24% is reduced to 8.8% by calculating the “extraordinary bonuses”.
It is well known that bonds are never built into retirement and that they are a way to alleviate the benefits of super inflation. Or worse, at a certain point: they can be understood as an arbitrariness of the type “I give you when I want or I give you when I feel like it”.
Source: Clarin
