On the same day that Congress approved the pension moratorium, the IMF telephoned Buenos Aires asking the experts what they thought the fiscal impact would be and whether it was possible for the President to veto it (which is never happened).
Then, the organization asked Economy if it was responsible for submitting that project (which according to the Congressional Budget Office cost 0.27% of GDP in the first year and 0.48% in the second). where they immediately looked towards the side of La Cámpora (they indicated Anabel Fernández Sagasti and Mariano Recalde).
In the IMF, sources close to the negotiation assure, there are “doubts” about the extent to which the minister is telling the truth and in truth he never opposed La Cámpora. Now Economia intends to install the idea that will try to delay the regulation of the law and therefore reduce the impact on the numbers by showing itself in harmony with the Fund. This Friday, in principle, the Executive Committee of the organization will deal with the staff reports of Argentina for last year’s fourth quarter goals review. Argentina will achieve its objectives and the disbursement of 5.3 billion dollars will arrive in a few hours.
But the IMF doesn’t just do a retrospective assessment of the economy under a program and the achievement of goals. It also establishes criteria on how the economy is performing and what are the chances that the next goals will be achieved (Q1 2023). There is the key.
On this front, the prospects seem more complicated and that is why Massa announced a month ago the easing of backup targets. We’ll know more about it this week. Yesterday the minister said that new guidelines will be established and everything suggests that it will be more than a question of reservations. This way the minister ensures another disbursement before STEP. We will see later.
In private conversations, IMF technicians have observed other ‘licenses’ that Massa has taken: the repurchase of bonds with reserves (the agency does not tolerate dollars becoming private, they have to pay the debt Argentina owes him). , the more lax fiscal (the fiscal target for the first quarter had already been committed only in January-February), the social security moratorium, the bond debt swap in dollars for ANSeS and that on 17 March the Government resorted to the Advances BCRA temps for $130,000 million for the first time since Massa has been a minister.
Finally, and not a minor issue, is what happens with tariffs. Massa promised the IMF – and told reporters – that he would raise the wholesale price of gas and electricity, Something that didn’t happen and that as inflation accelerated, it required more subsidy spending to fill the hole.
It will then be necessary to resort to imagination to see how to explain to directors of countries with little weight on the board of directors but always critical, such as the Netherlands, why in Europe they pay installments for what they are worth and not in Argentina. The argument here is that many poor people have not registered on the RASE form. Will the IMF understand?
Source: Clarin
