On the last day of March, the forecasts of private consultants on inflation for the month They already mark a low of 7% for the indicator. For Ecolatina the record was 7.4%, while for the Libertad y Progreso Foundation it was 7.3% and for C&T Consultores it was 7%. For IPC Online de Bahía Blanca it was 8.3% and for LCG it was 6.7%.
In March, CPI GBA Ecolatin up 7.4%, representing an inter-year increase of 107.5%. This record is the largest monthly increase since July 2022, when it was 7.5%. “consolidating the acceleration that occurred in the first two months”.
Thus, it amassed a 21.8% increase in the first quarter compared to 14.9% through March of last year.
For Ecolatin, the increase was driven by the Education and Apparel categories, added to various specific increases in the regulated sectors (private schools, prepaid, transportation, fuel, water and gas rates, TV, cable and internet; domestic service).
“For seasonal reasons, March tends to be a month with higher monthly inflation than the monthly average for the rest of the year, where the largest increases in clothing – due to the change of season – and education – due to the start of classes – they usually hit”.
In this measurement, Food and Beverage slowed its growth rate to 6.7% monthly, from 10.6% monthly in February, where moderation (even on high levels) played in favor of beef (with a 15% increase), vegetables (a 4.5% decrease) and fruit (a 6.1% increase).
GBA March S&T Retail Price Survey gives 7%, “which implies a new acceleration of the rate of price increase”. Thus, the annual change continued to rise and reached 107.7% for the CPI S&T.
“March is seasonally a month of high inflationfor the impact of the start of classes, which affects education, and the start of the new season, which affects clothing. Education led increases in March 2023, up 14.9%, reflecting the tax increase as well as the costs of supplies, books and materials, while apparel is up more than 7%,” they detailed.
“For the month of April we estimate inflation at around 6%. due to price increases and regulated tariffs (electricity, buses, domestic services, prepaid cards, schools) and the dynamics expected for the rest of the items”, C&T points out.
In March, the CPI-LyP recorded a monthly increase of 7.3%. In other words, compared to the February figure there was an acceleration of 0.7 percentage points. As a result, in the first quarter, the accumulated inflation is 21.3% (compared to 16.1% accumulated in the first quarter of 2022). For its part, the inter-year variation stood at 103.5% from 102.5% in February.
At the same time, the IPC On Line announced Inflation at 8.36% for March in Bahía Blanca. “At 19.81%, the Education category led the increases, followed by 13% for Housing and 9.89% for Food and Beverages, a section that was at the forefront in February.”
“March appears to mark a break in the containment dam, with record increases in chapters and product groups“, highlights the consultancy firm which started measuring the evolution of prices in 2014 and had never had such a high monthly index.
“The values once again break the 5-point average observed for all of 2022 and may be a warning that the acceleration in prices will henceforth lead us to a triple-digit annual inflation forecast,” warns in its CPI relationship.
For GCL, March inflation will be 6.7%just a tenth above February’s 6.6%.
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Source: Clarin
