While official March inflation will be known in the coming days, analysts who fed their forecasts into the Central Bank’s Survey of Market Expectations (REM) have already estimated that last month’s price index (CPI) increased from the previous month. And they expect full-year inflation of 110% (10.2 points above the forecast of the previous survey).
For February 2023, the median estimates of respondents to the previous REM survey suggested inflation of 6.1% per month, while the data observed in that month was 6.6% (0.5 percentage points in more than expected). In turn, EMN participants revised their forecasts for all periods, placing inflation at 90.0% for 2024, up 8.3 points from the previous survey and at 54.6% year-on-year (+0.9 pp) for the year 2025.
As regards the Core CPI, the variable that does not include regulated or seasonal prices, analysts have forecast a monthly change of 6.8% for March (0.8 points above the forecast of the previous survey), higher than the forecast of those better projected this variable to be short-term (6.5% monthly).
In this case, economists have also revised their core inflation forecast upwards for 2023 to 109.8% y/y (12.3 points higher than in the previous REM), and for 2024 to 94%. 2% y/y (6.3 pp more than the February survey) . For the 2025 full-year period, analysts have forecast core inflation of 51.9% year-on-year (0.7 percentage points higher than in the previous REM).
As regards the calculations of economic growth, the economists participating in the BC survey forecast for this year a level of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) lower than that of 2022 by 2.7 points (-2.7 points less than in 2022). than projected in the previous REM, while the TOP-10 of those who have best predicted economic growth in the past projects, on average, a decline of 3.0% (a downward correction of 2.2 pp from the previous REM). For 2024, estimates speak of an average annual growth of 0.7% (0.3 points less than the February survey).
For April, however, analysts predict a private bank BADLAR rate of 72.60%, higher than the average rate recorded in March of 2023 (70.98%). Those who have best predicted the short-term rate predict, on average, that it will be 72.42% in the month of this April.
As for the evolution of average nominal exchange rate of $215 per dollar for April 2023 (6.0% expected monthly change), and those who predicted this short-term variable most accurately predicted that the average nominal exchange rate for the same period would be $215.19 per dollar (6.1 % change per month).
As for the value of exports (FOB), EMN participants estimate an amount, for 2023, of US$ 74,391 million, higher than the prediction of TOP-10 members who projected the value of exports at $73.813 billion. As for imports (CIF) for the year 2023, the projections for all EMN participants stood at US$71.195 million.
As part of the forecast, analysts also estimated that for in the first quarter of 2023 the unemployment rate would be 7.0% of the Economically Active Population (EAP; -0.5 pp compared to the previous REM). For TOP10 members, the unemployment rate would have been 6.9% during the first quarter of 2023. In both cases, the unemployment rate is expected to increase during the year 2023.
Finally, the projection of the The nominal primary fiscal deficit of the national public non-financial sector (SPNF) realized by participants for 2023 was $3.8 trillion. And a primary deficit of $3.1 trillion by 2024. However, the average of the 10 most accurate forecasters over the past year for this variable projects a deficit of $3.439 billion by 2023.
Source: Clarin
