Despite this week’s announcements in which Sergio Massa tries to clarify things that devaluation of the official exchange rate is not an option in its management and before the uncertainty posed by the fragility of reserves and the electoral process, investors have begun to do so forcefully sue hedge bets. The “dollar linked” options are the most chosen, in a market that wants to “shield” itself from a possible rise in the exchange rate.
“This year will be very volatile for all local assets as it is an election year,” said Paula Gándara, CIO of Adcap Asset Management, who added: “Inflation cannot go down and central bank reserve dynamics fuel devaluation expectations, as well as near-term government efforts to control financial dollars.
For Gándara, the slogan to overcome this year is “have diversified fund portfolios, with a high weighting of instruments that offer a hedge against inflationAND devaluation. On the other hand, there are investors who tell us they prefer not to position themselves in sovereign assets this election year,” she said.
Dollar-linked instruments are the ones that have attracted the most attention market in recent weeks. However, many of the investors They don’t want to “bet on Argentine risk” and feel safer buying shares of companies, which have this same composition.
In this sense, Juan Pedro Mazza, fixed income strategist of Grupo Cohen, declared: “The corporate segment is presented as the more conservative alternative. The problem it shows is the low number of options available, particularly when we limit the search to 2024-maturity bonds.”
Mazza recommends: “It is important to analyze the company’s exposure to exchange rate risk (in particular that there is no risk of mismatch). For this reason, We prioritize companies with a substantial portion of their income from exports or in business abroad. Some examples of this are the Molinos, Vista or Cresud bonds.”
In the event that this does not happen and the majority of the company’s income is in pesos, the specialist stated that It is imperative that the company has no dollarized costs and that the dollar debt-to-income ratio is low.
Corporate debt promises not only to beat the evolution of the official exchange rate, but also to surpass the pace of financial dollars – underlined Massimiliano Donzelli, Head of Research at IOL Invertironline: “We suggest Telecom’s tradable bond (TLC5O), which matures in August 2025 and has a year-to-date dollar yield of 8.7%, outperforming US inflation.”
“Along the same lines, we believe it would be optimal to have exposure to the YPF Negotiable Obligation (YMCHO) maturing in 2026. In the latter case, it has the advantage of being able to trade with amounts as low as US $10, allowing to access an annual yield in dollars of 7.6%.In both cases, they can be purchased with pesos.” clarified.
NS
Source: Clarin
