The harvest offers a dramatic picture. The national average yield of soy is 14.4 quintals per hectare and that of corn is 39 quintals per hectare; either way, half of the latest campaigns, as reported this week by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA).
The oilseed crop is just up 4.3%, but the outlook is bearish. BCBA specialists warn this In this perspective, the harvest still projected at 25 million tons could be reduced.
In this sense, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) has estimated that the soybean harvest will be 23 million tons, calculating a drop of 4 million in the last month alone.
“The harvest of prime soybean squares advances to the center of the agricultural area, bringing back yields for below historic lows and an important heterogeneity in crops,” described the Buenos Aires-based organization’s Weekly Agricultural Panorama (PAS).
The corn harvest continues in the center and south of the national agricultural area and is no stranger to catastrophe. The BCBA calculates that the grain will eventually add 36 million tons in volume. This volume represents 16 million tons less than those harvested in the previous season, when they were 52 million, which translates into a 30.8% yoy decline in grain production.
And the game is still open, with an advance of only 12.7% of the harvest. “As growers move onto the squares planted towards the middle of the early planting window, yields begin to stabilize, albeit in well below regional production potential”it was noted in the PAS.
The outlook for this crop looks more “stable,” but the BCR has cut its projections from 35 million tons to 32 million tons.
It is worth pointing out the good performance of the sunflower, the species that “lent” a drought-resistant gene to wheat and soybean seeds developed by Argentine biotech as a global patent.
The sunflower crop has reached 91.1% of the area and the production is expected to exceed 3.5 million tons. The national average yield increased to 19.7 quintals per acre in the past week, so the BCBA maintained its production forecast at 3.9 million tons this season.
In that context, the “sour dollar”, or “soy dollar 3”, considered the “lifeline of the Argentine economy”, does not pick up the pace desired by the Government after a week of implementation.
Despite the devaluation as a sector incentive that involves the offer of $300 in lieu of the official exchange rate, momentum was weak as clumsiness in implementation combined with price disagreements by supply and demand.
On Friday, the price of soybeans jumped $2,000 on the Argentine market, but the same amount remained below last week’s price. So things, approximately $815 million entered during the first week of this measure. About 400,000 tons were used between operations and fixations, according to data from the SIO-Granos platform.
In case of regional economiesinserted by the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, to expand the “benefit”. more dubious than with soybeans.
In this sense, Argentine Rural Confederations (CRA), one of the bodies of the Liaison Table warned of the difficulty of accessing the “agricultural dollar” for the wool producers.
“It seems impossible that the benefit can be obtained,” denounced the CRA, together with the Federation of Agricultural Institutions of Santa Cruz, the Federation of Rural Societies of Río Negro and the Federation of Rural Societies of Chubut.
“There is no doubt that the official exchange rate has delayed the inflationary surge of recent years, therefore, the provision hinted at an improvement, and with it a relief in the delicate economic equation that the wool industry is experiencing”, recognized.
But complications on wools delivered with unpaid settlement, wools with a price to be fixed, wools with a fixed price and partial settlements, and new operations cancelled, are some of the many cases that cannot be resolved categorically and which generate the discontent of those who apparently were unable to access what was announced,” they assessed.
Even critically. The Argentine Agrarian Federation spoke out against the “agricultural dollar” and staged a day of protest in Buenos Aires on Tuesday. They delivered a petition to the Secretary of Agriculture, Juan José Bahillo, and met with several parliamentary, opposition and ruling party blocs.
Everyone seems to understand the seriousness of the situation. But background solutions are not displayed.
Source: Clarin
