Of course it is hard work, one might say unhealthy, to be the spokesperson for such a government he doesn’t hit one and goes down the ravine decisively like the one managed or badly governed by Alberto Fernández, Cristina Kirchner and Sergio Massa. But however big the engagements with the principals, a little decorum never hurts, something that smells different from the politics of permanent manipulation.
The spokeswoman Gabriela Cerruti commented on the inflationary shock of 7.7% that occurred in March: “Most of the analyzes show us that this was the worst moment and that a downward trend began which we hope to see materialize soon”.
The specific data say, to begin with, that 7.7% was the highest record in the last 20 years and the analyzes warn of the blows of an uncontrolled process and the risk of moving to a double-digit monthly ratethat is, decisively enter the tunnel of time.
And if we look at the real, not the imaginary trend, INDEC data has been pointing upwards and not downwards for some time, as the statistics of this period demonstrate.
It can start with 7.8% from January-March 2020; continue with 13% for the same period of 2021, 16.1% for 2022 and, finally, 21.7% from January-March of this 2023. The difference between the starting number and the number we are at marks 14 percentage points.
And if you prefer the annual rate, the sequence reads: 36.1%; 50.9; 94.8% in 2022 and 104.3% between March 2022 and March 2023. Now there is talk of a gap of 68 points.
That’s how steep and steeper the curve that describes inflation is since Kirchnerism returned to power. And precisely because it hits where it hurts most, the sensational demonstration of the failure of the government that prides itself on being progressive jumps into the impressive 440% that accumulates the cost of food in these three years and more.
It is already clear that he crowned the anti-inflationary sage named Sergio Massa and that, subsequently, his presidential ambitions and certain expectations of a similar kind encouraged by Cristina Kirchner were badly damaged.
In the eight months that Massa was at the helm of the Ministry of Economy, the price index increased by 62.7% and passed by 53.8% for the whole of 2019, i.e. the inflationary peak of the Macrista period. And that from April the cost of living would start again with a 3% that seemed fictional, Eventually it turned out to be fiction.
There’s no getting the ball off your back, or any guilt hoopla, at this point in the film. Furthermore, it is futile to seek refuge in the war in Ukraine and in the drought itself, given the scale, trajectory and local color of the problem.
We are facing a case of Stale and pure Kirchnerism and a defeat of controls, of the obstacles, agreements and closures that have followed since, in December 2019, Paula Español, a disciple of Axel Kicillof, took over the Secretariat of Commerce. It lasted ten months and was succeeded by Roberto Feletti, another great regulator who resigned eight months after taking office.
Of course, such a fiasco sowed devaluation and loss of income a rolete, especially among those who have no way of defending themselves and, therefore, are exposed to any adjustment by those who always shoot down. Right there, the phenomenon that hits hard on other fronts seems functional to the negotiation with the Monetary Fund, as has been retorted in recent days.
“Let me acknowledge that, in the second half of last year, the Argentine authorities have directed efforts to develop prudent management and achieve the objectives of the programme,” Kristalina Georgieva just said, formally friendly head of the IMF. Flowers for Massa, in full climb.
And what happened in the second half of 2022? It happened that primary public expenditure, without calculating interest, fell by no less than 19.5% in real terms, ie discounting certainly considerable inflation. Thus, in one fell swoop, the Government canceled the 12.4% increase it had promoted in the first half of the year.
Other things have happened which also explain the bell ringing. Among these, the blow to pensions and pensions, which fell by 2.3% in real terms and which, without the always occasional patching constraints, lost 10 percentage points against inflation.
Another equally strong explanation was the skid of 9.7% of the Universal Child Allowance, which now only covers 60% of the cost of a child’s food basket. And, finally, the almost 25 points of advantage that, during the year, the prices of the so-called social benefits, i.e. the complete package that includes the plans, were removed.
“We know we have the government’s commitment to continue refining policies in light of the conditions it is in,” Georgieva intervened after praising the decisions of the second half of 2022.
The commitment to refine the policies clearly emerges from the data for the beginning of 2023. In the two-month period January-February, the drop in spending on Family Allowance is 2.7% in real terms; 2% went to retirement and pensions and another 2% to the ever thinner Carta Alimentare. For total primary expenditure, the pruner clock marks 9.4%.
Under the current and renewed agreement with the Fund, the fiscal deficit for 2023 should be reduced by about 1.5% of GDP. In dollars, this adjustment represents about $9 trillion and, in the absence of sufficient revenue, points directly to spending. Soup again.
In Georgieva’s words, these are “the conditions in which the government finds itself”, i.e. it needs to fulfill its commitments. Simply and crudely, because, as is going on, amid torment, dropping the agreement would mean a strong jolt to the stability of the so-called Plan Arrival.
Seen in reverse, it matters to find meaning in the painting itself or perhaps it lies in the contradictions and inconsistencies that define this K model.
It is well demonstrated that the agreement with the IMF does not dissolve the distrust that Kirchnerism arouses in the world in which those goals are at stake, nor does it regulate expectations, nor does it serve to stabilize the economy or even act as an anchor against the inflationary spiral.
There is therefore nothing strange that after rising by 9.8% in February, the cost of food measured by the INDEC would have risen by 9.3% in March. That is 20% in a couple of months and exactly in the variable that defines the poverty line and seals the poverty indicators.
Predictably, the next measurements will mark increases on already high magnitudes and will aggravate the social situation in neglected areas, if not definitively abandoned by those who govern. Bright yellow light, turning red, in the suburbs of Buenos Aires and above the heart of fortress K.
Something similar in more than one sense happens with the wages of the so-called informal workers, those who orbit on the margins of the labor system and who are already in the poverty zone. According to consultancy studies, they have declined by no less than 35% in real terms since their 2017 peak.
Just to complete, a fact that appears everywhere in various forms.
What 2022 marked five consecutive years of declining average real wages and anticipates that by 2023 there will be six. Nothing you don’t hear.
Source: Clarin
