The blue dollar jumped $8 earlier in the week and set a new nominal high. The green currency in the informal market closed at $408 yesterday (Friday it was at $400) in a context of high volatility. Financial exchange rates recorded different trends. The Dollar Counted Settlement (CCL) is up $4 from the previous close and trading at $409.4 while the MEP dollar fell $3 and closed at $395.45.
In the market they interpret that the blue dollar’s rise “is a response to the strong inflation data seen last Friday,” says Diego Martínez Burzaco, of the online broker Inviú. He refers to the 7.7% increase in the cost of living in March recorded by INDEC, which marked its highest level since April 2002. “If the dollar doesn’t rise $30 a month with this inflation, it means lag“, underlined with a certain irony Nery Persichini, of the consultancy firm GMA Capital.
The rise of the blue dollar occurs in a scenario where the Central Bank is observed with a magnifying glass for purchases made since the introduction of the agricultural dollar. Maximiliano Donzelli, head of research at Invertironline, believes the increase in the exchange rate has to do with the monetary issue driving the soybean dollar, “because for every dollar you buy, an extra $100 is issued“.
That is, the difference between what the BCRA pays producers ($300) and the official exchange rate handed over to importers. As for the official dollar, The currency closed at $222.50 for the sale on the Banco Nación board$1.50 above Friday’s prior close.
Beyond this and despite being a marginal market, the price of the blue dollar has an impact on many prices in the economy, as an indirect consequence of the import squeeze. For all of last week, blue was up $8 pesos. This Monday it increased by the same amount, but in just one day. In exchange, The Central closed with a favorable balance of US$78 millionthanks to the US$ 154 million liquidation of the third edition of the soybean dollar.
“Blue is a very small market, which sooner or later follows the dynamics of financial dollars which, by volume and transparency, reflect where supply and demand are going, despite all the efforts and partial interventions made by the government,” says Juan Pablo Albornoz, from the consulting firm Inveq.
The expert, however, clarifies that “from a more macro perspective, the dollars are relatively calm at the beginning of the year: inflation in the first quarter was 22% and the MEP and CCL from end to end in the same period moved together with prices“, he concludes.
Santiago López Alfaro, of the stock exchange firm Patente, feels the same way. “Financial dollars – he charted – have long lagged inflation. Last year inflation was 90% and dollars rose nearly 60%. If they were adjusted based on the cost of living in recent months, the dollar should be worth between $450 and $460“, details.
However, Albornoz points out that “we are only now starting to see the gap warming. pesos increasingly affected by a totally unmoored inflationary regime,” he says.
Source: Clarin
