After the inflation record of 7.7% in March known last week, the markets reacted this Tuesday with the surge in parallel dollars up to $426 in the case of cash with liquidity, discounts in bonds of up to 2.5% and an increase in country risk to 2,470 points. All in the midst of the weak performance of the soybean dollar and the move of the main presidential adviser, Antonio Aracre, after rumors about the possible departure of Sergio Massa and his replacement, precisely, from Aracre.
The leap in alternative dollars – blue, counted with liquids or MEPs – then reflected the nervousness caused in operators by the possibility of Massa leaving and his replacement with Aracre. The entries, promoted by the Casa Rosada, were deactivated when the markets closed, when the exchange shot was already consummated. It was Aracre himself who announced via twitter that he would leave his post.
Tensions soon overheated the blue, which closed up $10 and reached for the first time the $418, on a day with little supply and price dispersion. Despite the 3% increase, in real terms it has been below the average for 2021 to date. If the dollar of the last two crises were updated, in October 2020 and July 2022, today it would be 741 and 573 dollars respectively.
Similarly, financial dollars also set new highs, climbing as high as $16, taking the CCL to $426 and the MEP to $409. Increases up to 4% They occurred in a round in which the Central Bank only bought US$1 million on the foreign exchange market (see page 4) and deal flow was limited in the bond market. In official dispatches they estimated no more than $8 million, well below the 100 million dollars traded every day.
The rebound in parallel prices began last week and accelerated on Tuesday as dollar-denominated Argentine bonds traded to buy MEPs and CCLs, a tool used by companies to become dollarised. “A little fear, not panic, drives bonds down and the dollar goes up,” said one trader. that way, the gap between the financial and the official dollar has widened to 96%.
“The acceleration of parallel dollars always has several factors, but we also need to highlight them the role of expectationsAlthough the Central cannot replenish reserves, the possibility of a devaluation leap remains very present and causes savers and companies to protect themselves. A situation reinforced by the acceleration of inflation and the loss of value of the peso,” she said. Claudio CapraruloAnalysis director.
The economics team associated the tremors with a “heat” due to the search for cover in the face of inflationary expectations and the version of a possible landing of Aracre at the Ministry of Economy. “They installed the noise of the exit of Massa and the entrance of Aracre and the market reacted”, They explained from the Palacio de Hacienda. “Lots of noise, few operations,” they said in another official dispatch.
Exchange rate pressures intensified despite the advice of the UBA published on Monday which would unblock the exchange of securities in dollars with ANSES and would allow the exchange rate gap to be contained. Despite the fact that the house of studies warned of greater debt, Massa interpreted the pronouncement as a nod to advance the measure. But the decree still needs to be regulated, which delays the intervention.
“The opinion will serve to take action on the violation and finance the exchequer, to the extent that they need it with auctions because they cannot be dumped on the secondary market in a colossal way because they would destroy parities,” said the economist Salvador Vitelli. And he added: “With the proceeds from the sale of bonds, they will issue dual bonds (in pesos), this generates pressure and uncertainty in the market.”
Vitelli then highlighted the deposit weighting rumors that circulated at the start of the debt swap rollout and which, in his view, led to the outflow of deposits into the private sector. According to their data, the banks requested $36 million in bills on Tuesday and the trickle for the year would amount to $570 million. But in one bank they reported that the orders are for replacement, not withdrawals.
“There was a little departure before Easter but now everything has stabilized and nothing is happening,” said one executive. However, he acknowledged that politics “added to the noise” on Tuesday.
After traveling to Washington to negotiate new aid with the IMF, Massa continues to struggle to stabilize the economy. “Although prices will increase dollarization of wallets and there will be more pressure in the third quarter due to the election and the greater difficulty in liquidating foreign currency, the government has the tools to control the gap,” said Santiago Manoukian, head of the Ecolatin research.
However, he estimated that “there will be pressure on financial dollars, it stands to reason that they will continue to track inflation after falling behind last year.”
Source: Clarin
