The central bank bought this Tuesday just $1 million in the foreign exchange market in one day with a reduced settlement of the soybean dollar which again reflected the difficulties in accumulating reserves. $180 million was traded on the wheel, but only $36 million entered through the export incentive program. And since the Monetary Authority sold $35 million, it had to settle for a limited balance in its favor.
The level of purchases was the lowest since last Wednesday, when the Central managed to obtain the same amount of reserves. The next day alone, with the strong kick-off of $574 million in foreign exchange settlement, the BCRA bought $332 million. But supply retreated again as parallel dollars overheated and the exchange rate gap with the official dollar widened, which closed at $216 on Tuesday.
“The Central Bank bought little because the liquidation was practically nil and they are not satisfied because the soybean dollar has lagged far behind the CCL. With a financial dollar at $425, the $300 is closer to the official dollar than the CCL and the exporter won’t liquidate if the producer doesn’t sell to him, and with this escalation the product is in the grain and the exporter worries about more than its position to sell,” said Emiliano Anselmi, economist at PPI.
Therefore, so far this year, the income per soybean 3 dollar it totaled $998 million, just above the second version and well below the 1,960 million dollars accumulated with the first incentive in the same period, according to Salvador Vitelli’s data. Against this background, the BCRA has parted ways with $3,000 million in the foreign exchange market so far in 2023, at the same time it has been selling reserves to buy bonds and meet debt payments.
“MULC had low volume even for a round with no PIE in effect, as only US$180 million was transacted, of which approximately US$144 million was traded through the export program. It is likely for this reason , the BCRA has only managed to keep $1 million, which, on the other hand, remains at an implied exchange rate of $3,184 per dollar,” said Andrés Reschini, analyst at F2 financial solutions.
During the day, banks and operators in the city also ensured that the market was conditioned by the rumors about the departure of the Minister of the Economy, Sergio Massa and the alleged landing of Antonio Aracre to replace him. Finally, in the afternoon, the main presidential adviser ended up announcing his resignation on Twitter to “deactivate any operation tending to upset the markets”.
“In recent days, rumors of all kinds have followed one another, from the departure of senior officials to requests from the IMF for a leap in the exchange rate. In this context, added to the electoral uncertainty, it is natural that the parallel dollar reacts, especially if this type of the change in a relative calm scenario from December 2020 to September 2021 would average $450 per dollar, after adjusting for inflation,” said Javier Casabal, of AdCap.
After experiencing monthly inflation of 7.7% in March, the market expects a rate hike that will absorb the pesos (Leliq, fixed term and bonds issued by the Treasury). In response, the BCRA on Tuesday accelerated the hike of the official dollar to 7.6% (monthly effective rate), but it is not yet clear whether it will move the benchmark rate – today at 6.6% monthly – for fear of the authorities to activate again plus the interest rate of the Leliq.
“The rise in parallel dollars is a response to the negative real rate. We are also in a very fragile scenario and we are approaching the election. I think the BCRA shouldn’t have waited until Thursday to announce the rate given the seriousness of the issue surprise of Friday’s data, although it’s not clear if they will satisfy the market,” Reschini said. And he warned: “They should be reasonable because if they don’t stop inflation, the rate alone won’t be enough.”
Analysts are also closely following the demand for banknotes. “The outflow of dollar deposits from the private sector has already reached 500 million dollars from the peak and generates a kind of alarm. In any case, it is necessary to clarify that the level of dollar deposits is just below 16,000 million dollars and that in the previous phases of the soybean dollar, it has increased significantly,” Casabal said.
Source: Clarin
