Dollar and inflation: how much it will rise this year, according to 50 banks and consultancies

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Argentina keeps adding bad predictions, Between a sharp rise in the dollar – which in recent days has risen by almost 20 dollars – and galloping inflation – the March figure was 7.7% and no improvement is expected for April -, about 50 entities (between banks and consultations) reflect a greater deterioration in local projections than a month ago.

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According to forecasts made month by month in FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – LatinFocus, the official dollar will end at $363 at the end of the year, $15 more expensive than expected a month ago, and the inflation will close 2023 at 107.3%, more than seven points above the previous forecast.

These projections are very bad, and still do not reflect either the sensational and very high inflation data in March, or the latest leaps of the dollar which positioned the blue at $420.

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As for the US currency – the variable that reveals the most to Argentines – those consulted warn that the wholesale dollar will end the year at 363 dollars and that it will end 2024 at 709 dollars per dollar. The high forecast for this year puts it at $513.

The other worrying variable has to do with the price index. There, the dispersion of the figures given by those consulted reflects the strong uncertainty prevailing, which left projections well short of the 7.7% it ultimately delivered in March. The highest prediction is 130%, given by FIEL technicians; and the lowest, is 76.1%, from the Economist Intelligence Unit. Even the average is not optimistic, putting inflation for the year at 110%.

The numbers become even more relevant when taking into account the previous data: 100.3%, 30 days ago; 97.0%, 60 days before; and 95.3%, 90 days before.

“Inflation reached 104.3% in March, compared to 102.5% in February, marking higher rate of inflation since our current records started,” the report added.

By 2024, according to the April report, a slowdown in the general price level is expected. That’s the consensus will close at 88.1%. The maximum estimate is 158% and the minimum is 50%.

The outlook for economic activity is also bleak. “GDP will fall this year. “A galloping inflationA falling weight, exhausted savings AND very high interest rates it will affect domestic demand, which will also experience prolonged uncertainty in the run-up to the October general election,” the report explains. It adds: “A less favorable external environment will make things worse.”

The consensus now is that GDP will shrink by 1.9%a month ago, that consensus showed a slight contraction of 0.5% by 2023. Now, the most pessimistic projection marks a decline of 4.6% for this year and the most optimistic a growth of 1.3%. The average reflects a decline of 2.2%.


Source: Clarin

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