The foreign exchange market was agitated from Monday to Thursday and the news, this Friday at 10 in the morning, that President Alberto Fernández he decided not to run for re-electiongave him a little more than agitation to business. It’s not that the novelty has surprised, but the uncertainty has increased because you know when resignations start, but not when they end. In other words: in the market no one can guarantee anyone’s continuity, and in particular that of the minister Sergio Massa or that of the president of the Central Bank, Miguel Pesce.
In this context, on Friday all the dollars returned to operating at higher values than in the previous session. The blue dollar jumped to $442, cash and liquid to $455 and the MEP to $438. The weekly balance indicates that the alternative exchange rates the macaron increases between 10% and 12%. It seemed that the government no longer intervened in the bond market to appease the increase in liquidity with liquidity, which only yesterday jumped by 4.4%.
To the nervousness was added the fact that foreign trade operations were blocked in the official market (see separate) and the fact that the Central Bank stretched from 90 to 180 days the restriction on access to the official foreign exchange market for those who continue to trade foreign-law global bonds to exchange currency. What he wants is for the Argentine Bonar law to be used.
The jump in dollars implies more pressure, moreover, on inflation. And it ends up making investments in pesos less attractive, even if the Central Bank has relaunched the rate at 81% per annum. Analysts stressed that the central bank fell short and should have raised the rate to at least 85%. Possibly within a few days there would be talk that even 85% would be “short” due to accelerating inflation. And then we know that in this climate of uncertainty no rate is enough to stop those who want to become dollars.
It must be said that there is no shortage of those who bet on the “carry trade” because they believe that after this week’s run the exchange rate should calm down. And this would make it possible to invest a few days or weeks in the peso exchange rate, to earn a good percentage in dollars. It’s all a matter of how risk averse you are.
The feeling of the operators is that in a scenario of very high uncertainty the safest thing to do is dollarize. This is the opinion of the large operators and the citizens who manage the domestic economy.
The data that is known is not good. The government is largely failing to meet the fiscal deficit target, the dollars that the plant can add to reserves are currently lower than expected. Analysts are struggling to get excited about the negotiations that Minister Sergio Massa has said he will start with the International Monetary Fund to reshape the agreement in force.
Furthermore, in this climate of exchange, the chances are reduced that the IMF will agree to issue an emergency credit line without asking for a sharper devaluation of the peso as a counterpart, which the government, for now, refuses.
On the field dollars, shot money with liquid adds inconvenience. Grain owners are no longer seduced by the special dollar at $300 – sour dollar – when Cash with Liquid slips past $455. It’s a new gap, and it’s already over 50%.
Source: Clarin
