Faced with the sharp rise of the blue dollar, which continues to rise at the beginning of the exchange week, the economist Carlos Melconian warned that the drought has complicated the government’s objectives, that the “plan to arrive” has been anticipated “between two and three months”, and which is experiencing “air turbulence” today. To complete, he warned that “the government is devaluing and the likelihood of a currency jump has increased”.
“The likelihood that they will have to jump the exchange rate has increased. Contexts with a jump in the exchange rate need to be accompanied by something that makes you feel that they are in control of what they have done. You have to be very careful” Melconian said.
In a radio talk Radio Miter with Jorge Lanatathe former president of Banco Nación during the government of Mauricio Macri, warned that to make a devaluation leap “one must know that Giving up running as a candidate is not giving up governing“, in a clear allusion to Alberto Fernández’s decision not to run for re-election. “They underestimate the conflict,” he warned.
“They are underestimating the conflict and we are entering a new phase of inflationary character and airplane turbulence. This is getting complicated both politically and economically speaking,” the economist said.
Melconian argued that economically “this year is doomed“, and that due to the severe drought that has been afflicting the countryside for months, the times to arrive have been brought forward “between two and three months”.
And he added: “It is not good government that has been caught by drought, it is bad government with negligence that has been caught by drought. If the government does not define anything, this ordeal will continue until October”.
Possible scenario for the next few months
Melconian raised a very black economic future of the upcoming election. “I’m thinking of three possible scenarios, one of which is hyperinflation; another is the Rodrigazo and another is very similar to when the Southern Plan (implemented by Juan Sourrouille, second minister of the economy in the presidency of Raúl Alfonsín) began to deteriorate,” the economist predicted.
“The hyper is not a pleasant scenario, much less without political authority as now, and in the midst of the elections; the Rodrigazos have been magnitudes of 150% in a couple of days with political weakness; and the departure of the Austral plan goes from mid of 1987 at the Spring Plan. The third one will seem more pleasant to you,” he anticipated.
“The spring plan was an electoral response to the deterioration, which is starting to generate another jump in the inflation rate because there is no need to delay the change and liquefy due to inflation,” explained the economist.
Source: Clarin
