The new hit of the ‘blue’ dollar, with the subsequent pass-through on prices, was something that three economists questioned by clarion, of different political colour.
“It’s part of the volatility and uncertainty we’re seeing in the market, the result of a totally unbalanced economy said Dante Sica, former Minister of Production of Cambiemos and current collaborator of Patricia Bullrich, pre-candidate of the PRO for the Presidency.
“I wouldn’t call it a currency run in the classic sense, outflow of pesos and dollarization of wallets. Mutual funds and banks are not demonstrating it,” according to Ricardo Delgado, who was an interior ministry official but was also close to Economy Minister Sergio Massa in the past. Do you think the IMF He is attentive to the situation and evaluates the requests of the Economy to relax certain needs.
“There is a combination ofand fragility in government policy, the drought and the irresponsible statements of the opposition”, according to Claudio Lozano, who was director of the Banco Nación and part of the Frente de Todos, even if he does not agree with Massa.
“The government is lose the ability to reactand has the least degree of freedom. It comes from a first quarter in which all expectations on the possibility of a disruptive phenomenon were disengaged and worsened, be it a sharp devaluation of the official exchange rate or an inflationary flare”, according to Sica. The depreciation of the peso and the acceleration of prices are “the product of a macro deterioration and fiscal relationships: the government continues to have a very large fiscal deficit, which is why it has already had to resort to emission again,” according to the former Minister of Production, who was also Secretary of Industry during the presidency of Eduardo Duhalde.
“We knew this quarter was going to be very challenging due to the $15 billion to $20 billion short from last year. There was an asynchrony between dollars and pesos. We see a correction towards the accumulated inflation of the financial dollars and the ‘blue’ dollar, and perhaps a little more, at least so far. The signals from the government to stop this process, which is not a bullfight, even if it breaks expectations”, according to Delgado, who was Sergio Massa’s economic adviser at the time of the Frente Renovador -2013 and 2015- when the current Minister of Economics tried to be president in the face of Kirchnerism.In addition, he held other positions in public administration.
“The two problems that triggered the departure of (Martín) Guzmán as Minister of Economy, which are the shortage of reserves and the cumbersome debt, not only exist, but have worsened. This demonstrates the failure of the concession policy and subordination to the IMF and the great interests of collectors. The reluctance of exporters to liquidate is evident, even if there is a dollar “soy, version 3”, defines Claudio Lozano, who was director of Banco Nación, but has distanced himself from the government because he believes that “President Alberto Fernández he didn’t keep his promises del Frente de Todos in its electoral campaign”, of which Lozano was a part.
“Expectations are shattered and distorted, against a backdrop of high inflation. Financial dollars and the blue could continue this repricing process is becoming very dangerous“, analyzes Delgado. “The government has a battery of local measures, such as the reduction of import payments, or the ability to sell more dollar bonds from state agencies,” he adds.
“The official coalition is dissolving, with macro conditions deteriorating and a tougher international context generates this impact, from which all companies are taking cover and this increases uncertainty,” according to Sica. Lozano says opposition economists talking about dollarization have contributed to this dollar rally. “Massa deepened the agreement with the IMF, and accepted this policy which leads to suicide. What one should do is exit the agreement with the IMF, decree the exchange emergency, a aggravated criminal tax law enforcement and a popular anti-inflation program“, he states.
Source: Clarin
