Seasonally, April inflation is generally lower than March. However, the exchange rate rush of the last few days has precipitated price hikes, at a level similar to March and even above it. As it happens, the dollar’s rush to nearly $500 (later slowed, in part, by official intervention), has pushed this month’s inflation forecasts into a range. 7% to 8%.
For most economists, data for the fourth month of the year are not closed. However, they have approximations. Santiago Manoukianeconomist at the consulting firm ecolatin account: “In the first fortnight of the month, the calculation gave us 7.3% per month. But then there has been an acceleration in prices in recent weeks, with which, 7% grip more like a floor that like a roof,” he says clarion.
In a similar situation, Fausto Spotornochief economist of the study Ferreres & Associates indicates an increase of 7% until the third week of the month. “If week 4 performs like week 2, it will give us 8%; but if week 3 performs like week 3, it will give 7.7%. I estimate it will be just under 8%“, he indicated .
In his opinion Bahía Blanca IPC Onlinethe price increase in April would have reached 7.9%as anticipated.
From the consultant balanceMeanwhile, the economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina expects the April price index to be “about 7.5%“, he commented before consulting this newspaper.
It can go down and be record
On the other hand, the calculation of the Freedom and Progress Foundation shows an increase of 7.2% monthly, or 0.5 points below the INDEC March measure. “AND the highest monthly record for a fourth month of the year since 2002“, they stand out in that group.
In evaluating the slight deceleration compared to the March data, its analysts explain it March is strongly conditioned by the seasonal factor. “This puts it on a higher footing and as a result, generally speaking, a slowdown is evident in April. Which, on this occasion, is cushioned by the sustained speed of unregulated prices,” he explained.
On the other hand, “the inflationary dynamics of the second half of April showed an upward trend, largely influenced by the currency rush, leading to strong price increases, comparable to those recorded at the beginning of the month. However, the full impact of this phenomenon It will be observed with greater intensity in May“the Foundation warned.
During the feverish days when the dollar soared, several voices were affected because suppliers limited the delivery of goods or did not deliver due to uncertainty about the value of the exchange.
As in previous months, the “Food and beverages” Returned protagonist in the April increases. According to the consultancy firm GCLmeasured in supermarkets, the item had a monthly inflation of Average of 8.1% over the past four weeks and 9.5% from start to finish during the same period.
In the cumulative for the month, the largest increases occurred in vegetables (16%), meats (10.5%), baked goods (7.8%), dairy products and eggs (7.5%), ready meals (5.6%), beverages (4.6%) , oils (3%) and fruit (2%).
For the L&P FoundationHe food category gone up 8% in April. And the increases affected all the items of the index: “Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels” rose by 11.8% and “Restaurants and various services” by 9.1%. Also noteworthy are the increases in “Domestic maintenance” and “Miscellaneous goods and services”, whose monthly changes were respectively 9% and 11.1%.
Lautaro Muschetthe economist of the Foundation, said that the floor of inflation is increasing as the lack of an economic course generates a lot of uncertainty and distrust in our currency”.
According to the analyst, “not only is the monetary base growing at a rate of more than 40% in interannual terms, but also the demand for pesos has accelerated and this has been reflected in the exchange race of the last few weeks. By definition, that means higher inflation and has made it a dire situation for people ever since purchasing power is rapidly collapsing“.
Source: Clarin
