The lack of rainfall continues in Argentina’s most productive agricultural area and the impact will also be felt in the upcoming wheat campaign. With the driest conditions in the last fifteen years in the central region, which covers the north of Buenos Aires, the south of Santa Fe and the southeast of Córdoba, the sowing of the cereal which takes place between May and June will not be able to materialize. According to the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), in this scenario, the area planted with crops would fall to 650,000 hectares, half of a year ago. This poses a major problem not only for the farmers who urgently need to keep producing to recover from drought losses during the previous cycle, but also for the economies of the city, the country and the new government that eventually takes over. of 2023. This could result in an income cut of between 1,500 and 2,000 million dollars.
“If April had encountered an average of 120 millimeters of rain and May was accompanied by forecasts of thunderstorms, we would be facing the projection of a record sowing, with almost 2 million hectares for the 2023/24 cycle”, said the specialists of the BCR extension. However, in the fourth month of the year it rained just 30% of the usual and the weather prospects are not encouraging until May 15th.
The planting intention dates back to the years prior to 2016 when the yields did not exceed 25-30 quintals per hectare. “After that date, with improved margins, wheat became a highly valued crop for the area, management changed and more technology was applied to achieve yields of 50 to 55 quintals per hectare. 2016 was a great milestone for wheat,” explained the BCR. Before, the planted area did not exceed 700,000 hectares and reaching average yields of almost 50 quintals, as the region achieved in the 2021/22 campaign, was a utopia.
At the national level, the Buenos Aires Wheat Exchange forecasts an increase in the area cultivated with wheat for the 2023/24 cycle of 600,000 hectares, reaching a total of 6,700,000 hectares, 4.7% more than the average of the last five campaigns which stood at 6,400,000 hectares. If that area materializes, it would be, along with the 2021/22 campaign, the second highest in the last 22 years. This will depend on the rainfall needed during the next five weeks so that the soil’s moisture reserves are recovered and sowing can proceed.
But in Argentine agriculture, the climate dictates the law and although the producers of the central region want and must sow wheat, today they cannot do so because the profiles are dry.
According to BCR, the intention to plant winter cereals has halved. In San Gregorio, south of Santa Fe, the technicians of the Rosario body explain it Producers “seek a quick financial return with wheat” but consider it too risky because “the campaign is very complicated from the start, there is not enough water in the profiles”. There, they appreciate it the percentage of useful water in the soil fluctuates between 20 and 30% when in a normal year the minimum necessary for sowing is 60%. BCR consultants indicate that the limit for seeding will be 50% of useful water. As a strategy, “in specific cases, the grain will be done as a cover, without fertilizing, and towards the end of August, depending on how it rains and the crop, it could be fertilized and left to harvest or break the cycle,” they say. But time is running out and although the deadline for sowing in the area is July 10, in the months of June and July the contribution of rainfall is usually low, therefore, in fact the real limit is the end of May.
In the city of Piedritas, their eyes are on what will happen with the rains in the next 15-20 days, while in San Pedro there are still more than 100 millimeters (4 inches) left before farmers can sow. “We will wait until July to see if the profiles are reloaded; the other alternative is to wait until July and decide if there are conditions for planting peas,” they say there. In El Trébol a 20% drop in wheat area is expected compared to 2022, although if the rains do not arrive in time the cut could be greater.
The gaze of all producers points to the sky. From the BCR they announce a certain probability of rain and showers on the north and east of the core region between Friday and Saturday. “It is very probable that the first ten days of May, or even the first fortnight, will be affected by the entry of colder air. Consequentially, the low level of precipitation would remain that autumn showed,” explained the institution’s consultant, Alfredo Elorriaga.
Source: Clarin
