The currency rush seems to have been left behind but the level of uncertainty remains high. Despite the battery of measures put in place in the last two weeks, the Central Bank has not managed to buy dollars and the net reserves, which operate negatively, have reached, according to the calculations of some consultants of the Municipality, its worst level since the release of Convertibility.
On the way, the blue dollar closed up $1y $470 while financial dollars held up. The eyes of the market are looking at the Central Bank’s reserves, amidst a climate of impatience with the failure to confirm higher disbursements by the Monetary Fund.
Against this backdrop, Central, which closed on Friday with gross reserves close to drilling $34 billion, could only buy US$7 million in the foreign exchange market, thus extending a series of signings that began on Friday. In total, the body bought $9 million this month and accumulates a turnover of 267 million dollars only for its interventions in the “single and free” foreign exchange market.
“It is confirmed the demand for dollar savings has easedwhich is concentrated in the first days of the month, and demand is stabilizing for the rest, where energy imports required $10 million a day,” market sources said. The agro-export complex, USD soy through, just liquidated US$ 35 million, the lowest amount since last April 26th.
In the third round of the soybean dollar, a little more than 2,000 million dollars were gradually liquidated. With this dynamic, in recent days several advisers to the City have warned that the net reserves, the “own” dollars of the BCRA not counting the reserves, the swap loans on international currencies or the gold reserves, they are down to an area of minus 1,000 million dollars.
According to specialists, this is the worst moment in terms of net reserves since the exit of Convertibility. The current situation, with nuances, It is comparable to only two moments of the last ten years: 2013 and 2015.
“That 2013 was the pre-devaluation of Kicillof-Fabrega. They basically ran out of money. And in 2015 they handed over to the government the same way,” said Invecq economist Juan Pablo Albornoz.
Albornoz recalled that in 2015 the balance of the BCRA had been even more compromised by the huge sell-off that had been made on the futures market to keep the price of the dollar at bay. Now that’s the concern on the horizon there are fewer and fewer chances to reverse that red.
“Argentina has just over 1.3 billion US SDRs, with which the IMF has to pay around June $2 billion. Argentina could pay you with dollars, the problem is that there aren’t any (except that they get additional funding, either with the Fund, with organizations or by activating the exchange with China),” added the economist.
In this sense, an operator who preferred to give his name to this banknote said; “This situation with the reserves has no points of comparison. And these calculations do not take into account the debt that Centrale currently owes to importers, which is a huge liability.”
The dynamics are worrying. In its latest report, consulting firm 1816 warned: “Without net reserves, the key will be to continue monitoring the stock of private dollar deposits, considering that the BCRA’s ability to sell currency for cash with liquids (CCL) it will depend on the patience of those depositors”.
AQ
Source: Clarin
