Would you invest in Argentina? “THE the short answer is not nowI represent a multinational with 30 years in the country and the question they ask me is why they stay”, surprised Martín Genesio, CEO of the American AES, with ten power plants in the country.
And when he explained the reasons why, unlike other multinationals, they remain in the country, he said so “Argentina is the country with the greatest energy potential in the world, number 2 in shale gas, fourth in shale oil, second in lithium. Sure, we need a stable framework.”
In the hall of the Alvear Icon in Puerto Madero there was the presence of leading figures for the summit organized by AmCham which houses multinationals with branches in the country. The inaugural speech of Facundo Gómez Minujin when he underlined that we are in a milestone year summed up what the CEOs were saying.
“It’s impossible to plan for the long term when we don’t have very short term visibility. We are sailing in a fog bank and this level of uncertainty is constant“Gómez Minujin warned.
Many surrounded the bankers who reassured them of the solidity of the financial system, which “is no longer barefoot with dollar loans to those who do not generate dollars. We have dollars to spare,” they said.
In that sector, a couple of Citi officials, recently arrived from New York, were excited about the international scenario for 2024, with the US starting to stop raising rates, a world pulling out of recession and markets emerging that are growing again.
In the group of tankers complained about the high dollar costs with the illusion of what the launch of the Vaca Muerta pipeline means, and warning in passing that it is urgent that these pipes reach the north of the country, since in two years they could run out of gas due to the decline in Bolivian production.
Two major consumer industrialists underlined the uncertainty for the remainder of the year and said so expect an exchange rate adjustment by the next government.
“Uncertainty is worse than a negative scenario”said the industrialist with the request to reserve his name, who believes it the next government will have two finance ministers one for the impending adjustment and the other for the “later joys”.
Many celebrated the speech by Horacio Rosatti, president of the Tribunal, who spoke of “respect for private property, private initiative and free competition”, as remarked by Silvia Torres Carbonell of the IEA.
At the beginning of one of the panels, AmCham highlighted Argentina’s social drama and its loss of competitiveness to be relegated to the bottom of the league table. That’s how he occupies position 112 in institutional quality, 69 under management, with 8.1% of its population in poverty and having lost 25 export destinations. In passing, he listed what is needed in various areas, from lower taxes, access to finance and active policies to reach new markets.
“The challenge in Argentina is to think long-term beyond a few weeks,” he said. Bernard Andrews, de Genneia, a wind energy leader who stressed that the private sector must take risks and that it needs a public sector to lead the way without changing the rules.
As for agribusiness, it was noted that in 2022 it contributed $53 billion in exports and that 3 out of 5 dollars that entered the economy were agricultural withholdings, said Martín Ticinese, president of the Quilmes brewery.
At the table where the role of the sector was discussed, Fernando Cozzi, of Cargill, said that world demand will remain stable given that it is necessary to add to the current world production of cereals of 2.7 billion tons about 40 or 50 million tons of cereals each year.
“It depends on us. South America plays an important role, first of all Brazil and we are there. We need rules of the game that look at the long term, it’s not about food, there is pressure on crops for renewables,” he said said.
Alejandro Esztain, CEO of Cresud, exemplified what happened in Brazil: “20 years ago it produced 20 million soybeans and corn and it has multiplied up to the current 120 million. The big growth has been in infertile areasthey exploit technology and fertilize, it has state-of-the-art machinery, they add hectares and the state intervenes with credit, long-term rules and take care of the excesses. Brazil is a power and they wiped us out”.
Elsztain warned about what it means not to have a long-term horizon: “In Argentina water is thrown away and there are no investments in irrigation that can improve and make a leap in productivity”.
It was Juan Farinatti, of Bayer, who gave a note of optimism: “The number one of Bayer was in the country and was surprised by the 95% direct seeding, by the regenerative agriculture and by the innovative spirit of the producers, our potential it’s phenomenal,” he predicted.
Source: Clarin
