Year-over-year increases in food and beverages continue to drive inflation dynamics: in March and April, they averaged 9.5% per month. In this sense, annualizing the monthly index, the result would be 197% inflation for food, according to a work carried out by the RA Center of the Faculty of Economics of the UBA.
Annual inflation describes price developments over the last 12 months. However, the general rate of inflation a year ago is far from being similar to the current one (5% monthly average in the first quarter of 2022 compared to 7% in the same period in 2023).
For this reason, calculations such as annualized monthly rates of change are often used. So you can estimate What would inflation be like after one year if current inflation levels persisted?
The work of the UBA recalled that inflation in March was 7.7% per monththe highest increase since April 2002. He also revised that the year-over-year increase was 104.3%, but clarified that “Average price increases don’t give a clear picture of which products have gone up the most or the least of this number and which are the most representative of daily consumption. The basic food basket, meanwhile, increased by 120.1% annually and the total basic basket (with some services included) grew by 113.2%, both above inflation.
Among the products included in the basic food basket, strong increases were recorded in March in: fruit and vegetables, sugar (198.2%), oil (186%), pasta (152.9%), eggs (152.8 %), beer (152.9%). 146.9%) and wine (133.2%). Increases in line with general inflation for dairy products, soft drinks, biscuits, cured meats and sausages and white meats. Butter, cheese and yerba mate grew below inflation, and red meats also grew, close to 87% annually, against a general level of over 100%.
If the comparison is made between March 2022 and March 2023, the item with the largest increase was restaurants and hotels, +121.4% yearly, although clothing and footwear (118.8% annually) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (113.4% annually) also showed increases in the same band. The first two are closely related to the internal market, which it can be influenced by a free (parallel) exchange rate. which discourages saving and stimulates present consumption.
The item with the lowest increase in annual terms was instead communication (belonging to the regulated products segment), which grew by 76.5% compared to the same month of 2022. In more detail, the sub-item with the lowest increase was telecommunications (73.9% annually).
“Looking at specific products, the maximum increase was in the kilo of oranges, which grew by 422.2% compared to the same month last year. Other high increases were seen in the pound of sweet potato (374.1%), potato (267.2%), lettuce (239.1%) and squash (213.5%). The kilo of apples instead increased by 171.1% and that of onions by 170.8%. All products in season.”, the report said.
“Other goods with high increases, exceeding 150% per annum, were the kilogram of sugar, sunflower oil, diapers, a dozen eggs, hamburgers and powdered soap. in wine and beer, soft drinks, salt, dairy products, flour, biscuits, cured meats and sausages and chicken”.
“On the contrary, the lowest increase, indicated the work of the UBA, “occurred in canned tomatoes (73.2% per year). Other products with values lower than annual inflation were cuts of meat, bread, butter, cheese, yerba mate, mineral water and personal hygiene products. Cuts of meat, on average, have risen 15 points below inflation overall, unlike the previous year’s strong pace.
Services grew less than goods (100.2% vs. 105.7%), with heterogeneity within the sector: the service with the highest increase was that of catering and meals away from home (119.3 % per annum), while the smallest increases were still recorded in regulated areas such as communications and public transport (75% per annum). Meanwhile, the prices of prepaid cards (115.7% annually), leisure activities (93.4%) and rentals (96%) have increased by intermediate amounts.
NS
Source: Clarin
