As tariffs and food rise, inflation in May would be as low as 9%

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With the inflation figure of 8.4% for April, the consultants are starting to recalculate their forecasts upwards for May, which are already expected to be 9%. However, they point this out cautiously it cannot be excluded that this month the record will reach double figures.

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“Unfortunately, May indicates even higher inflation, above 10%. It was to maintain the course of what was done up until August 19th. It was hard work, but it was the only way to a stable country with a future,” tweeted former Economy Minister Nicolás Dujovne.

Economist Sebastián Menescaldi points out that in the weekly measurement carried out by EcoGo, inflation for the second week of May was 1.6% versus 2.1% for the first week in food and beverages. “But we’ve seen other things speeding up, like airline tickets and medicines and which is already driving inflation to 8.5%”.

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“It is possible that the April data will trigger new increases in some segments that will bring them closer to double digits. That will depend on how the exchange rate gap plays out next week“, says Menescaldi.

For the economist Fernando Marull “beyond the easing of the parallel dollar, the damage has already been done. Inflation in May would be even higher, due to the impact of the exchange rate and tariff crisis and it would not go below 9%. Any move could take it into double figures. A devaluation of the dollar today triggers hyperinflation.”

According to the consultancy firm LCG, “in 15 days prices accumulate a rise of 4.8%. The average of the last 4 weeks shows a 9% increase that shows April’s data looks like a floor“.

May’s list of increases includes electricity and gas tariffs, Subte (15%), fuel (4%), prepaid (5%), among the mains and debits with the drag of the alternative dollar’s escalation in the last days of April.

Aldo Abram, an economist at the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, expects to have a low of 8.6% for May. “It will most likely be above 9% And that’s assuming we don’t have a weight rush like we did in April. The levels of uncertainty will increase a lot. We could have double-digit inflation.”.

With data up to May 12, in the measurement of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, consumer prices showed a 7.3% increase so far this month“a strong acceleration compared to what was accumulated in the first two weeks of April (5.3%)”.

They underline that “due to the acceleration of the last two weeks of April, the statistical drag exceeds 2 percentage points, double compared to the previous months. But, in addition, regulated goods and services account for around 1.7 points on the growth of the General CPI, due to the increases in electricity, gas, prepaid cards, private schools, fuel and public transport recorded in the month”.

“For May, we expected inflation to be slightly below 8%, but I think it can be exceeded. Double-digit inflation for May today is not the most likely scenario, but it cannot be ruled out.“, says the economist Camilo Tiscornia.

“Double-digit inflation in May is a scenario that cannot be ruled out in any way. I fear that we may enter a situation where today’s unexpectedly high inflation is the fuel for rising inflation tomorrow,” says economist Iván Carrino.

“Every price reference has been lost, so everyone goes up thinking they went down last month, and this can lead to an inflationary shock even without further issuance,” adds Carrino.


Source: Clarin

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