It’s already underestimating the population too much to keep crushing with the MacChristian heritage, with neoliberalism, the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine or whatever happens escape from trouble which are the responsibility of the government itself. And that if they are not entirely, they are to a large extent.
After three long years adrift, always entangled in messy and irrelevant maneuvers and with no one really in charge, it is evident, once again demonstrated, that the method of kicking the ball forward solves nothing. Or reveal what is behind it: inability and lack of ideas.
Therefore, what goes wrong will most likely get worse and be added to the list of difficult and unavoidable pending accounts.
There are two such cases where economics and politics strongly intersect, which have booed and jeopardized the power and future of Christianity, including the aspirations of the increasingly worn-out minister Sergio Massa. Infamous, it’s called super inflation and the other, central bank reserves in red, on the floor.
With 8.4% shown by the April price index or, if you prefer, 10.1% of the cost of food, they are once again in ridicule some official interpretations which, to tell the truth, were already ridiculous when they were uttered. Like “homemade inflation” and the “psychological inflation” who, in the absence of better ideas, Alberto Fernández put in charge of the small trader.
No quirks, coming from where it came from. That’s right “We need to set a goal to stop this”that Fernández himself proposed to Massa before it was known or perhaps the April indicator knew it.
Very late afternoon: for the part that falls to the president and vice president, given that the current version of Kirchnerism has landed at the Casa Rosada average inflation racks up 425% and the cost of food, 484%. Exceptional.
And if the focus is on the minister who, in a plan of salvation, has come to put the economy in order and stop the inflationary spiral, we have 76% and 86% respectively, in just eight months of management. Impressive, again.
Much more than jokes, we are faced with a couple of champions of economic management and government conduct disastrous who shake, always, without mercy, those whom Kirchnerism calls the vulnerable sectors and claims to defend. Again, words, words… Workers who have lost wages for years lose their wages. Among these, the 9 million unemployed or self-employed, without equality or basic social and employment coverage, who orbit on the margins of the system. According to recent studies, their real income has decreased by 41.8% since November 2017.
It is also sung that such inflationary records will accentuate the already steep levels of poverty. In the data for the second half of 2022 we now have 39.2% of the national total and 45% in the suburbs of Buenos Aires which, if the trend continues, would soon become 42.9 and 49.5% respectively.
In the midst of this swampy ground, on the way to elections and lobbying various points, the IMF appears, which is to say the devil. Or, more properly, an economic adjustment is looming.
IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack has just determined that the program agreed with the Argentine government in March 2022 faces a “complex and demanding situation” due to the impact of drought. That is, due to a loss of exports that specialists calculate at 20,000 million dollars, which directly affects the extremely scarce resources of the BCRA and triggers emergencies.
“Everything is on the table,” Massa said like he was talking about the same thing as Kozack even though they weren’t talking exactly the same thing.
In fact, the minister alluded to the Argentine request, also linked to the drought, in the sense that the Fund anticipate an outlay of US$ 10,500 million which would serve to bolster the BCRA’s reserves and firepower. Kozack left the forum, knowing full well what Massa was talking about.
It is clear that a country in which 60/70% of its economic activity depends on imported inputs and goods cannot function with a stock of negative foreign currency equal to 1,000 million dollars. And nothing changes, or gets worse, if the only source of dollars is the IMF.
Says a former K official who knows some corners of the debate: “We are tied to the Fund, crushed by a negotiation in which the conditions of the Fund and the impact on crucial economic policy decisions. He talks about exchange rates, issuance, rates and public spending, even the securities sold at auction prices that serve to contain alternative dollars.
He continues, in a dramatic tone: “It is not a binary negotiation, for two. It’s another where someone has the last word and where the opponent has to be careful that the shelf doesn’t fall, because he falls there himself”.
Other sources familiar with the sparks also say: “It is no longer a question of fighting to arrive more or less well-off at the elections and clinging to the plan to get from Massa. As things stand now, December is too far away. The horizon has been reduced to 60 or at most 90 days and the pressure on politics is therefore strong”.
In other words, the definitions and key costs associated with fighting the IMF have been left behind. during the election campaign. That is, on the way to August PASO and the end of October or November, depending on whether or not there is a vote.
Already personally involved in the outcome of the match and urged to save some clothing, the Economy Minister warned in recent days: “We don’t have another quilombo. We need political order for there to be economic order.” He speaks clearly of the prisoners in the Government, of Alberto and Cristina and, it goes without saying, of the agreement with the Monetary Fund.
And if we go back to prices, INDEC points out that in food we have fully entered the area of double digits per month. Abril has planted a varied menu: 26% chicken, 20% egg, 19% hake fillet and 11% rice.
Numbers run by consultancy firm LCG say 4.8% for the first two weeks of May, 8.9% monthly average and 56% increases in goods in the basket it notes, which seems to herald another similar observation earlier of the end of the month
It remains to calculate the cost of what will arise from the negotiations with the IMF and the benefits that will derive from the official palliative measures. But one thing is very clear: Much of what is favorable has already been consumed by prices, Also, they run faster and faster.
Some consultants’ projections point to 150% by 2023. That is, well up in the K series: there was 94.8% in 2022; 50.9% in 2021 and 36.5% at the beginning of 2020.
We would therefore be talking about an increase of 114 percentage points between 2020 and 2023. If it is not a preview of the hypermarket, it is still very scary.
Source: Clarin
