The blue dollar advanced four pesos at market open on Monday and reached the $490. Thus, the informal inflation increased by 16 pesos since April was known at 8.4%, which leaves a low level for the May record.
All the efforts of Sergio Massa’s team are put on the field prevent parallel dollars from skyrocketings as this could push May’s consumer price index into double digits.
With an advance of 0.8% on the day, the blue dollar rose more than the financial dollars: the MEP lost 0.2%, a $464.7while liquidity increased by 0.1%, a $493.
With this dynamic, the government has resumed its intervention in the financial markets of the dollar, as happened last week. Through the buying and selling of bonds, keeps MEP and CCL away from the $500 ceiling.
According to market estimates, it has spent $800 million on these surgeries in the past four weeks.
It’s an expensive strategy amid a currency shortage that won’t reverse even during the soy dollar rally. This Monday, the export hike program helped US$94 million and thus accumulates US$3,136 million. There are only five rounds left before the end of the month, making it clear that the government’s $5 billion target of the third version of the soybean dollar will fall short.
“Towards the end of ‘soy dollar 3’, the central bank’s net receipt of foreign currency is low compared to what is liquidated by the agro-export complex,” They indicate from Aurum Valores.
Although the objectives have not been achieved, the latest rounds have given the Central Bank the opportunity to end the negative streak that had dragged on in April and early May. This Monday closed with a balance in favor of $31.4 million which lead him to exhibit a positive result of $182 million so far this month.
Although the sell-off has reversed, it remains a meager result due to the reserve drain.
In the absence of dollars, The government seeks to add foreign currency from three fronts: Monetary Fund, China and Brazil. but so far there are no concrete signs that the aid sought will arrive.
So Massa is faced with the dilemma of using the few dollars he has to prevent the escape of alternative dollars, resisting the onslaught of the IMF, which has hitherto questioned the loss of reserves in this way.
Meanwhile, the economic team continues to negotiate with the Fund in a complex climate due to Argentina’s difficulties in achieving the objectives agreed with the agency.
For the economist Gustavo Ber, “operators evaluate interventions -as well as other measures that aim to regulate the supply and demand of currencies- just like a bridge waiting to be able to get disbursements with the IMF soon which allow for more calm exchange rates, especially towards the third quarter when there is a greater shortage of foreign currency and dollarization, historically, tends to accelerate even more during election periods”.
However, Ber points out that beyond the purchases that the Central Bank has managed to add in the last few rounds, “operators remain concerned about booking dynamicsgiven that despite the higher agricultural dollar liquidations they are still at critical levels and the end of the second quarter is approaching ”.
AQ
Source: Clarin
