Without the soybean dollar, the shortage of foreign exchange worsens and increases uncertainty in the parallel market

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After a break for the XXL weekend and attentive to the news that could arrive from China after the trip of the Minister of the Economy, Sergio Massa, the foreign exchange market will resume operations this Monday in a context of relative calm in the parallel segment and with Doubts about the ability of the Central Bank to get hold of dollarsand be able to keep them in their reserves.

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The “soy dollar 3” program will end, as originally proposed, this Wednesday. Until Friday, just over $3.5 billion and in the market they estimate it will close with near dollar income 4 billion dollars. The government’s original expectation was that $5 billion would come in, and the market is now speculating with a fourth edition of this exchange rate differential for agriculture.

The “soy dollar” has lost strength with the passing of its editions and in this last round the Central Bank was able to maintain only the 24% of currencies introduced by exporters. Despite the government’s initial refusal to relaunch this type of subsidy, the market does not rule out the possibility that some price incentives may reappear to compensate for the lack of dollars due to the drought.

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The drop in gross reserves is what’s in the eye of the storm: US$ 2,333 million have already left the Central Bank’s coffers during the month. Despite this scenario of growing fragility, in the parallel market the foreign exchange crisis of the end of April seems to have been tamed, or at least anesthetized for a while.

On Wednesday, the blue dollar closed at $493, just two pesos off its nominal all-time high, but the financial dollars held up despite the noise generated by a last-minute National Securities Commission (CNV) rule requiring a new trap to those who work with bonds to get dollars in the financial market.

Financial analyst Christian Buteler said: “The ‘official’ MEP/CCL had a small drop on Wednesday after the new regulations, Most likely, it will settle a bit lower and then revert to the uptrend underneath.The CNV provision prevents those who have operated with securities to obtain the so-called “Euro-deputy dollar” or cash with liquidation from using the result of those operations to buy other securities again on the market.

“As long as those dollars are widely accessible, the gap with blue shouldn’t widen too much either,” Buteler said. “First, because if I have white money, why would I pay $492 for something I can get for $460, and second, because the curl was cut with other tools and not blue. Even if it’s mixing white with black, the more the gap widens the more profitable you take that risk”.

In this sentence, the tension on exchange rates remains latent. An operator consulted by clarion He claims that, with no news of a possible disbursement by the IMF, even if Massa achieved his goal of obtaining Chinese guarantee to expand uses of the foreign exchange swap, the needle would not move too much.

“Dollars will continue to push higher in segments where the government does not participate. They will continue to intervene by selling cheap dollars with AL and GD but there will be no supply of private dollars in those markets. So they will continue to lose reserves trying to show price lower than the real one“, he assured.

The last stretch of May and the beginning of the sixth month of June could take place in a context of relative calm in exchange rates which, as the days go by, could turn into new pressures in the parallel market. The Central Bank has raised the daily rate of devaluation in recent rounds, but is still keeping it below this month’s inflation forecast by leading advisors and the economy’s interest rates.

Just over two months after PASO, on the market do not exclude new inventory adjustments to avoid a new trigger of the exchange rate. “If there is no new soybean 4 dollar, the government aims to negotiate with the IMF, China and Brazil. For us, the alternative between more stocks or some type of expansion continues,” said economist Fernando Marull.


Source: Clarin

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