With just two days left on soybean 3 dollar, the company liquidated less than last week and the Central Bank managed to buy 12 million US dollars on the foreign exchange market this monday. It was a low-volume round, due to a US holiday that left local operations without a target market. In total, since the beginning of this edition of the agricultural dollar, the Central Bank has been able to 860 million dollars, well below previous versions.
So far this month, the body has bought 319 million dollars, but the gross reserves continue to decrease: this Monday another 66 million dollars came out of closed coffers $32,877 million.
The loss of reserves is related to official intervention in the bond market to keep the financial dollar at bay after the run at the end of April, but also to payments to international organizations and fluctuations in the price of gold and the yuan that compose them.
Since its inception in the second week of April, the $300 soybean dollar has failed to capture the attention of agricultural exporters as much as it did in the previous two releases. Settlements, affected by the impact of the drought, have been limited. Over the past couple of weeks, those numbers have bounced back and the field received nearly $3,585 million.
“Despite the improvement in regulations driven by international price dynamics, This figure is far from the 5,000 million dollars envisaged by the ruling party at the beginning of the regime. Reaching this figure would imply that, on average, they are regulated US$489 million per day in the remaining wheelsan unprecedented event in the whole program,” they indicated in PPI.
While the government for now denies the possibility of a soybean quarter after June, the consultant believes that beyond mid-year increasing the incentive for exporters to liquidate again could yield better results than those left by this lean edition.
“Given that an adjustment to the official exchange rate is discounted from December, a new “agro” dollar is the only tool this administration has to encourage massive liquidation until then“, they said in PPI and specified that if the government refuses to make a moderate jump in the exchange rate before December, and with little possibility of making a major fiscal adjustment due to the electoral scenario, “a new program to increase exports it could be the key that unlocks the progress of IMF disbursements”.
Meanwhile, even in the parallel market, activity has been limited and the market will only recover this Tuesday, almost a week after the recent National Securities Commission (CNV) adjustments for access to the financial dollar.
“The Euro MP dollar obtained from sovereign bonds is finished with its price $459.6 while the is obtained from closed ledes $464.44. Remember that the May bill expires on Wednesday, so to obtain this change you must use the June banknote S30J3. For its part, cash with settlement has been positioned around the $497commented Priscila Bruno, analyst at Rava.
In the informal market, the blue dollar fell by one peso and closed at $492. With this, the exchange rate gap against the wholesale dollar, which trades at $235.75, is 108%.
The consultancy firm ACM specified that the foreign exchange market has accumulated a deficit of 4,982 million dollarsa deterioration three times greater than in the same period of the previous year.
“This result is due to multiple factors, including the decline in the balance sheet, which has been recorded a deficit of US$ 2,697 millionmainly explained by the decline in receipts from exports of goods”.
On the other hand, the Services account also presented a deficit of $2,667 million. “Although this negative result is 14% lower than in the same period a year earlier, we can see that Travel and Others and Merchandise card payments are the main components explaining the shortfall in the Services Account.”
Together these two games stack up a negative net result of US$ 2,624 million, equal to 60% of the total costs of the Services Account.
“Considering these issues, and the IMF’s net negative financing this year, which is around $4.5 billion, we are facing a scenario in which the trend seen so far is unlikely to be reversed”, concludes ACM .
Charles Arterburn is a seasoned business journalist for News Rebeat, where he provides comprehensive coverage of the latest trends and developments in the world of finance and economics.