In 2022, Argentine exports set a record – they reached $88.446 million. What was the highest historical record has not been enough to sustain the trade surplus, which from one year to the next was reduced from US$14,751 million to US$6,923 million.
This year, with drought taking away $20 billion from agricultural exports and a few dollars to support imports, the country is on track to halve its 2022 result, as the odds grow that the year will end in the red. The last time there was a trade deficit was in 2018, when the balance was a negative $3.701 million, also due to the drought.
A commercial red was achieved in the first four months of 2023 $1,469 million. In the quarter, exports decreased by 21.5%, while the drop in imports was more limited, 6.5%.
Analysts consulted by clarion agree that exports will fall about 20% this year, but they differ in terms of falling imports: The reason is that they estimate varying degrees of adjustment of the restrictions that operate on foreign purchases to prevent central bank reserves from continuing to bleed. Today, despite the contribution of 3 soybeans dollar, net reserves remain negative at US$1.75 billionaccording to the estimate of Aurum Valores,
The most extreme forecast for the trade result is that of Andrés Borenstein, who predicts that exports will close at 70,288 million dollars and imports at 70,533 million dollars, which will leave a deficit of US$245 million.
From Abeceb they anticipate that this year exports will lose 20% and imports 13%, “at the rate of the turnstile of the largest importer”. In short, they calculate that the year would end with “a slight trade surplus of about 1,000-1,500 million dollars, implying an 82% decrease from the 2022 level”.
“The deterioration of the trade balance in 2023 will not be greater thanks to the significant reduction in the energy trade balance deficit which would go from a negative balance of 4,359 million dollars in 2022 to a slight deficit of around 1,000 million dollars in 2023, a virtual balance cannot be ruled out as well”, stresses Abeceb.
This retraction of the red in the energy balance is the product of a combination of rising exports, mainly of crude oil (after the clearance of the OTASA pipeline to Chile) and falling gas imports driven by falling prices in international energy markets after the decompression of tensions over the war between Russia and Ukraine.
In Ecolatina they estimate that it will have the trade balance a surplus of nearly $3 billion this year.
For Fernando Marull, director of FMyA, the drought will reduce agricultural exports by 20,000 million dollars, while imports will be reduced by 15%. Marull points out that the contraction in imports will be a consequence of the impact of the restrictions that are applied through permits (SIRA), but also of the effect of the recession: he anticipates that the gross product will drop by 4% over the year. So the accounts give it a surplus of $4 billion.
Sebastián Menescaldi, director of the consultancy firm EcoGo, forecasts drops of 20.4% for external sales and 21.9% for purchases, which will make it possible to reach a surplus of US$6,797 million. Although the balance remains close to the 2022 level, it does so at the cost of severely limiting foreign purchases, which will lead to a deepening of the decline in activity, which according to EcoGo could shrink by up to 5%.
“In foreign trade, import management actions are intensifying with the consequences this has on business and prices. No less cost to the economy It is associated with the reduction of public revenues through withholdings due to a drop in the harvest of 45 million tonnes” added Eduardo Fracchia, director of the economic area of the IAE of the Austral University.
The good news is that for 2024, expectations are decidedly positive. Abeceb predicts that reversing the drought effect would allow for an increase of at least US$15,000 million in agricultural exports “And this will be added to by a greater inflow of foreign exchange from the energy sector, which may already have a trade balance surplus, thus contributing to the easing of Argentina’s historic external tightening.”
AQ
Source: Clarin
