Whoever fills the tank wins. It could be a new slogan to beat inflation. He petrol price It has increased by 340% in the past four years, while the cumulative cost of living has increased by more than 600% over that period.
Fuels have added monthly increases of 4% since December 2022, except in March, when it was lower (3.2%). However, at this level of compounding, they once again rise below accumulated inflation.
He gallon of premium gas ships at $184.70 at YPF pumps in the city of Buenos Aires, the main national reference. Does four years, as of May 2019, it was at $42. If fuel prices had risen at the same rate as inflation, Gasoline should be at $295.
The price of fuel is one of the most observed by politicians during election campaigns. It is assumed that there will continue to be corrections of 4% per month, at least until STEP in mid-August. This would allow two more increments, by 4% each, on June 15 and July 15. Even so, it will work below inflation.
“Fair Price increases (the agreement between the Government and the oil companies to coordinate increases) are below the evolution of inflation and exchange rate depreciation”, observes a report by Economy and Energy, the consultancy firm led by Nicolás Arceo.
Between April 2023 and April 2022, the price of petrol fell by 14.6% at constant prices, that is, discounting the accumulated inflation. Also it fell 6.6% measured in dollars.
In March, the liter of premium gasoline was 217 dollars, in August, after the succession of increases, it should be 253 dollars, according to estimates by Economy and Energy. In March, every liter shipped equaled one dollar, an equation that has played out throughout most of the 1990s and since the expropriation of YPF in 2012. In July the price would be 90 cents, a 10% retracement in “hard” currency.
“Between May and August, the expected inflation and the expected exchange rate were considered in the Central Bank’s REM estimate for April 2023,” according to Economía y Energía, which prepared this data based on information from the Ministry of Energy. .
Premium gasoline cost $48.59 in May 2019, while it now ships at $232. If the fuel observation were the same as inflation from that month, the sale value would be $337.
These data could be indicative a new lag in fuel prices. The opposition believes that it is another of the energy products that are lagging behind, in addition to the electricity and gas rates.
In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva wants Petrobras to reduce fuel prices. The Brazilian state-owned company had followed international trends. But the new decision is to promote amounts more dedicated to the needs of the internal market.
What will happen to gasoline in 2023
He cumulative increases of fuels for the period January-August 2023 is between 36% (super gasoline) and 50% (premium) if the forecasts of the two price agreements announced so far are respected. Although it is not possible to determine what inflation will be in those months, analysts estimate an increase in the cost of living it will be doublein an 80% zone.
The current management of YPF has already applied for a long time it blocks on two occasions. The first just took office, from December 2019 to August 2020. The liter shipped at $53 and only in August was it enabled to rise to $56. The formula was repeated between May 2021 and January 2022, where the liter held steady at $90. Only in February was it touched as high as $99.
The constant of election years
The election of this administration of delaying price hikes in election years It has already been almost a constant in all governments. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s terms saw increases in 2012 and 2014 (bringing the price of fuel to dollar levels not seen since the 1990s), but they were very careful in the election years (2013 and 2015).
In 2013, some increases were implemented shortly after the ruling party lost the legislative elections. The main executioner of the Victory Front (at the time the electoral name of Kirchnerism) was Sergio Massa, the current Minister of the Economy.
The administration of Mauricio Macri also resorted to this expedient. In 2018, a non-election year, pump increases were 60%. In this way they exceeded the annual inflation of that year, which reached 47.6%.
In 2019, with the presidential elections, the government has asked the oil companies to freeze prices for three months. The companies refused. The executive power prices paralyzed by decree for 90 days (June, July and August). The measure was not enough to improve Cambiemos’ electoral chances, which lost the primary.
In any case, the Government has insisted on that path. He allowed for a 4% raise (at the time it was $2) for after the election. And the oil companies kept the amounts in September and October, again with the idea of not contributing to inflation.
Charles Arterburn is a seasoned business journalist for News Rebeat, where he provides comprehensive coverage of the latest trends and developments in the world of finance and economics.