Vehicle makers are among the sectors hardest hit by the restrictions.
The shortage of dollars will be felt again in the Argentine economy in 2022. Since the need for hoarding is tamed by the exchange trap, the underlying resistance to keep the foreign currency provided by exports it occurs between importers and the Central Bank, judges and parties in the fight against this arm.
One of the objectives of the agreement with the Monetary Fund should add the Central $ 5.8 billion in reserves this year. The challenge is complex: the balance right now is in April, the month with the highest settlement in the field so far, hardly adding own purchases for US $ 165 millionagainst more than US $ 3,000 million it pocketed last year.
In the first quarter, imports grew 39.5% and exports rose 25.6%, pushed by exceptional grain prices amid the war between Russia and Ukraine.
The case of import in the early part of the year there was a jump in demand due to operators they seek to anticipate coming restrictions and possible exchange rate acceleration. But that jump is starting to recede.
This week, automakers and sector unions lined up to claim restrictions on the entry of vehicle parts. In a note to the Central Bank, they warned that it could lead to “production cessation and staff suspension.”
The basis of the claim was that Central changed the rules for importing supplies and established two categories. Those playing in “A” are automatically released their dollars, and those in “B” are required to wait 180 days before the provider is paid. This step complicates procurement and production.
So, while importers are asking for more dollars, the Central Government is covering the cracks where foreign currency has fled.. For the LCG consultant, imports in arm wrestling will be defeated. “This year’s imports will be determined by total exports to ensure the accumulation of reserves within the framework of the agreement with the IMF. The fact that export prices continue to rise is encouraging import controls can be moderated. However, rising fuel prices are a factor that adds to the limitation on this issue “.
This leads them to project a trade surplus around $ 10 billion for this year, 30% less than what was achieved in 2021.
For Sebastián Menescaldi, director of consulting firm EcoGo, “Import levels today are unsustainable. And they should fall between 15% and 11% for the rest of the year compared to the amount in March, when they reached US $ 7,000 million, to be in line with the Central Bank’s reserve accumulation goal. “
For Menescaldi, the sectors that will see a decrease in their overseas purchases are heeithers Consumer goods, capital goods and transport goods. Those with the best chance of getting ahead are importers of intermediate goods, parts and accessories, and fuel.
In fact, an EcoGo survey shows that while imports of intermediate goods are at their highest since 2004, “the rest of the components are 17% downeither“In the case of cars, the decline was even more dramatic: only 25% of the historic maximum was imported.
The sector that will have the most marked growth in imports is fuels, driven by higher international costs and the local impact of the drought. IERAL’s projection is that energy imports reached US $ 12,000 million, doubling the number for 2021. Thus, this item will represent 15% of total imports, when in 2021 it gained 10%, which left less space for the rest.
EcoGo projections will close this year’s imports at $ 74 billionan increase of 17.6% compared to the level of 2021. With exports touched on $ 85 billionan increase of 9.2%, the surplus would be $ 10.9 billion26.5% less than in 2021.
The third player goes between the top two players who, with a lower profile, deduct money from the last account. Is about the service account, on the one hand it was fueled by the larger spending of Argentines on tourism abroad and on the other hand by the increasing cost of transportation and freight.
Thus, the services account, which in 2021 had a deficit of US $ 4,500 million, this year it will reach the red US $ 6,150 millionan increase of 38%, according to EcoGo estimates.
For Jorge Vasconcelos, from IERAL, “this struggle for dollars could end in the second semester, to the extent that the government continues with the policy of excessive public spending.”
AQ
Source: Clarin
