Export ban prohibited: Milei would have a trade surplus of 15 billion dollars

According to the consultancy firm Ecolatina, Javier Milei will have a trade surplus in 2024 highest in the last five years, with 15,000 million dollars. He attributes this to the end of the drought and the energy savings achieved by the Vaca Muerta pipeline.

In his last speech announcing the DNU, Milei used an impactful phrase. In another sense, you recalled the slogan of the French youth during the 1968 riots with “forbidden to forbid”. But in this case the President has spoken “banning exports is prohibited” and promised to eliminate obstacles.

According to Ecolatina, “looking to 2024, we expect a significant strengthening of the trade balance, close to $15 billion, which will contribute to the much-needed recomposition of the BCRA’s reserves. The outcome would be determined by recovery of agricultural exports, hand in hand with the end of the drought; THE reversal of the energy trade deficit, through the launch of the President Néstor Kirchner pipeline; a greater contribution from the extraction; it’s a increase in import prices, added to an economic recession that would tend to limit the demand for imports due to lower domestic demand.

In recent days, the BCRA has again accumulated reserves by purchasing $1,895 million post-devaluation, following increased export liquidation and importer demand that remains limited.

Experts argue that the net purchases of foreign currency that the Central Bank can accumulate are crucial The increased demand for foreign exchange from importers will begin within 30 days product of the established scheme.

Furthermore, in the month of January About $1.5 trillion of sovereign debt is due and the abundant harvest is still far away, given that it begins to be marketed in March.

Ecolatina listed measures that would benefit exporters, make imports more expensive and facilitate a trade surplus. Are the following:

• Changes in the exchange rate regime

• Increase in the official exchange rate in the order of 120%.

• Allow exporters to settle 20% of foreign currency to the CCL dollar.

• Increase of National import tax from 7.5% to 17.5%.

• A positive dollar interest rate: The peso rate is greater than the crawling peg (the rise of the official dollar).

• Manage the stock of commercial debt: The BCRA will issue bonds to importers of goods and services with outstanding trade debts.
• New flows: replacement of the SIRA-SIRASE system with one that will not require prior license approval.