Even before the deregulatory DNU came into force, Pres Javier Milei he had said it Buying dollars in the parallel foreign exchange market was not illegal.
Now, with the decree in force, the freedom of exchange that begins promises to begin to end years of controls, stocks and savings in foreign currency in a framework of illegality.
This new era in foreign exchange has the peculiarity of occurring simultaneously with the validity of a restriction on the payment of imports which, again in the words of the president, “we will not be able to open until the conditions for it are met. be able to withstand a sharp change in portfolio“.
To overcome delays in payment of imports, the Government has implemented the Bopreal bonus and established that new imports will be paid in installments of 30, 60, 90 and 120 days.
This would defer the payments for approximately $6.8 billion through mid-April when, presumably thanks to the income from soy dollars, the Central Bank’s reserves will be more strengthened.
On the other side of the initiation of the exchange rate liberalization process is the politics of get incentives to save in pesos which began with the rate reduction interest rate for term deposits from the beginning of Luis Caputo as Minister of Economy.
The fixed-term deposits that have yielded The 11% monthly rate jumped to 9% monthly rate at the same time as inflation jumped and was starting to point to the 28% expected this month.
The decline in the performance of the traditional 30-day fixed maturity has shifted the focus of depositors’ interest towards the fixed maturity UVA deposits that adapt to the cost of living and which could be completed within 90 days.
Thus began the demand by savers for those quarterly placements that promised a high return in the heat inflation forecasts from 20% to 40% that President Javier Milei had created for the first quarter of 2024.
Weight holders looking to protect their money from the inflation they encounter elusive banks who, not having the possibility of placing this mass of funds, opted for HIDE the possibility of carrying out such operations.
It was pressure from the banks that led the Central Bank to do so extend the minimum duration to 6 months of the UVA’s fixed duration and placed a limit of $5 million per depositor as a way to discourage the possibility of tying part of the savings to the inflationary leap.
Until last week, the peso holders’ bet was clear: with UVA deposits they would not only beat traditional fixed-term deposits offering 9% monthly, but, they assumed, they would also beat the dollar. starting from Caputo’s decision to set it at 800 dollars.
The $800 fixed exchange rate, which will move at 2% monthly for at least the next two months, was seen as an opportunity amid the price storm fueled by wild markups as companies and businesses try to maintain margins. sale. .
Now, betting on UVA’s fixed deadline at 180 carries the risk that politicians and economists who believe that, at the rate at which inflation has begun, the government will have no choice but to implement a new exchange rate adjustment towards the end of the third trimester.
On the other hand, the fixed exchange rate with anticipated devaluation of 2% per month, chosen by the Government as an anti-inflationary anchor, contributed to ensuring that in the first weeks of its validity The Central Bank added $2.8 billion to its reserves.
Also because the exchange rate gap (official/blue distance) has fallen to 22.6% of what it should be the path to exchange rate unification which could arrive in April, when a good part of the dollars coming from the countryside will have entered and the pesos will have liquefied under the pressure of an inflationary blow that indicates accelerated adjustment of the activity level.
Source: Clarin
