In the first week of 2024, the financial dollar set a new record: it reached it $1,140 and thus surpassed the previous peak of $1,110 reached before the presidential elections on October 22nd.
This rise is accompanied by the MEP dollar, which is traded on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange and which also sets a record with $1,104. What seems outdated is the blue dollar, which despite these movements barely advances to five pesos to catch up $1,025.
With this the exchange rate gap between cash with liquids and wholesale, today at $812, reaches 40%.
In four days the CCL grew by 17% and therefore far beats the peso rate – today at 8% monthly, very far from inflation – which discourages carry trade operations and pushes savers to position themselves in hard currency.
The rebound in financial dollars began with the arrival of the new year and in the week in which Javier Milei’s government faces its biggest complications since taking office less than a month ago.
The curbs on labor justice, apart from the measures set out in the DNU, as well as the obstacles to Congressional progress in dealing with the omnibus bill are signs that demonstrate that The reform path welcomed by the market will be more complex than expected just a few days ago.
These turbulences have helped bring forward the expected rise in financial dollars within a couple of weeks. For seasonal reasons, the demand for pesos increases in December and early January and begins to decline in the second half of this month. But this timethe inflationary acceleration has curbed the appetite for the peso. At the same time, inflation, which in December would be between 25% and 30% and in January could be a few points lower, suggests that the dollar could make a new leap.
In this context, importers choose to turn their backs on BOPREAL, the bond that Minister Luis Caputo created to repay the debt generated by the previous government. And this puts more pressure on alternative dollars.
“The reorganization of financial dollars continues, and therefore the gap already exceeds 30%. a greater search for coverage by investors who are unable to find alternatives to defend themselves from the strong loss of purchasing power. What happens is that very negative real rates, accelerated inflation and a creeping peg of only 2%, give rise to a combination that leaves savers with their backs to the wall, and the expectation is also growing that if it were widened it would lead over time to an even greater widening of the gap”, says economist Gustavo Ber.
The Central Bank maintained its purchasing streak 189 million dollars and already the numbers add up 631 million dollars on the four wheels that have passed since 2024.
Since December 13, when the devaluation occurred, the Central has already purchased 3.5 billion dollars. But almost all of these dollars will be lent to the Treasury to pay next week’s dues, most of them with the IMF, in exchange for a bond.
Therefore, the Central Bank’s difficulty in holding foreign currency increases market distrust, in the midst of the onset the negotiations with the Monetary Fund to launch a new agreement.
Source: Clarin
