After the Javier Milei devaluation, the price surge, the drop in rates and the minimal exchange rate gap between the official dollar and the MEP dollar, those who had savings in pesos turned to taking out fixed terms UVA (PF UVA) to 90 days, the trend of which is not linked to a fixed rate but rather to the evolution of inflation.
This “avalanche” of demand for UVA PFs has been created The banks will put pressure on the Central so as to limit and place limits on such investment, which is not convenient for financial institutions. For this reason, the monetary body has taken measures to discourage savers: it extended the duration of these instruments from 90 to 180 days and set a ceiling of 5 million pesos per customer.
With these restrictions and the rise of the MEP dollar in recent days, which went from 990 to 1,100 dollars this week, savers asked themselves the question again this usually occurs whenever it looks like the dollar is about to start a bull run: Is it advisable to put pesos in a UVA fixed term or bet on the stock dollar?
The specialists consulted favor UVA PF. According to his calculations, Inflation will outpace the rise of the MEP or the official dollar in the next 180 days.
“For the MEP dollar to beat inflation, it must reach $2,280 on July 3 and today it is at $1,100. The UVA fixed maturity is convenient because the saver gets all the overheated December inflation,” he argues. Martino Polo, Cohen’s chief strategist.
The economist talks about December, because the evolution of UVA is a month late. “If someone sets a fixed deadline now, they will capture inflation from November to May and inflation will be 160%. That’s why UVA PF is so competitive for small and medium-sized savers,” he explains.
What can change this scenario? “If there is a jump in the exchange rate and the MEP dollar can more easily reach $2,280, what happens is if there is another 40% jump in the exchange rate, which we don’t believe, there will be even more inflation.”
What could happen to the dollar in the coming months
Second Pedro Siaba Serrate, Head of Research and Strategy From PPI, So far, several factors have kept financial dollars dormant.
“On the one hand, the grown-ups confidence shock which generated the announcement of Milei’s economic plan at the height of the Government’s “honeymoon”; December is a peak demand month seasonal money (which then begins to falter in the latter part of January and declines in February); the good performance of export incentive program (80/20) after the write-down that enabled a $1,091 million CCL offering in the 12-wheeler segment; and the noise generated by the asset photo at the end of the year (for personal assets),” he explained.
“In this mix was the CCL well below inflation, Obviously, but also the interest rate. Indeed, the gap collapsed to nearly 15% as of December 27 (below 30% post-devaluation), which seemed too optimistic given the challenges ahead.”
They believe in PPI there may be greater volatility in financial dollars in the coming weeks, and the CCL has a long way to go at least in the next couple of months.
“If the economic team manages to start showing positive signs in the execution of the tax cut, and inflation after rate compensation begins a path of disinflation, financial dollars may calm down again and move at a slower pace than inflationand consequently, the implicit rate of the fixed term UVA,” argues Siaba Serrate.
“For a duration of 180 days, and given that the rate of that instrument today is attractive, could beat the evolution of the MEP. THE the big disadvantage is its low liquidityand that the amounts are quite small,” he warns.
Ezequiel Zambaglione, Head of research at Balanzagrees that inflation will be above 100% for the next six months, and that it is essential to determine the investment term and if the money is not needed in the next 180 days.
“If there is no need for liquidity for the next 6 months, the UVA fixed maturity is a good alternative, as it guarantees us to maintain the real value of the savings, i.e. in 6 months we will be able to purchase a similar amount of goods and services”, he claims.
The dollar, a defensive strategy
Regarding the dollar, Zambaglione admits: “The dollarization option is always interesting, especially with the dollar current level of uncertainty, where the reorganization of relative prices has just begun and is underway a speed higher than expected”.
He believes that inflation will be greater than the depreciation of the MEP and that “the option todollarize is rather defensive, it would be better to protect ourselves from disruptive scenarios where the exchange rate ends up being the adjustment variable.”
Source: Clarin
