In the first four wheels of 2024, the dollar counted with the liquidation increased by more than 17%. Regard steeper price jump of this price in the last three months. After weeks of “stock market summer”, the rise of the financial dollar shows a certain uncertainty on the markets due to the economic stabilization plan chaired by Luis Caputo.
Liquidity will begin to operate this Monday after closing on Friday at $1,140, a value that, measured in real terms, is the lowest since Martín Guzmán’s departure in July 2022. The unknown for the City is how much room it has to grow.
The exchange rate gap, which had touched the the historic low of 8% at the end of December has rebounded above 30% if you take an average of the three most representative parallel quotes: the blue dollar, the MEP and the CCL. On the last day of last year, the Central Bank ratified its intention to let the official dollar rise at 2% monthly in January, and in this sense validated a wholesale dollar increase of 0.5% in the first week of the month. .
There are several reasons behind this “awakening” of financial dollars. On the one hand, in the first three weeks of Javier Milei’s mandate there were “seasonal” factors that “contributed”, after the devaluation of December 13, to a rapid reduction of the gap, even to a much higher level. lower than expected in the city.
Jorge Vasconcelos, of IERAL, explains: “Although it contracted to single digits in the middle of last week. There are temporary factors behind this figure, such as the case of the liquidation of 20% of exports through the CCL (which drains the flow of foreign currency in favor of the BCRA); the prohibitions that remain for “cross” operations (MULC/CCL) by companies; the regulation of exchange rates for the payment of imports, with a restrictive payment calendar; a lawsuit of money seasonally higher in this part of the year, phenomenon that will have to be reversed towards the end of January.”
Surging prices and the Central Bank’s decision to maintain a low devaluation rate also put upward pressure on the gap. “The current high level of the exchange rate in real terms can also be considered temporary, given the difference to which the official parity is adjusted (2.0% monthly) and the pace of inflation, which for December would record a value close to to 30%, despite regulated prices still varying at a single-digit monthly rate,” the economist added.
Among the Municipality’s first forecasts for the first phase of the Milei plan there is a gap of around 30%, 40%. But if the pressure exceeds this level, the market does not rule out a new devaluation This could occur towards the end of February, when money demand reaches its seasonal low again.
Martín Polo, from Cohen, said: “Such a rapid convergence between different types of changes It was difficult to hold him back especially if you take into account that the importers were out of the picture. With the new foreign trade program, importers began to access the market in “four installments.” Therefore, in mid-January we will see a quarter of last month’s demand, plus 25% of this month’s import demand, which will further complicate the Central Bank’s dollar buying. We will probably go from the average purchase of 200 million dollars per day to a much more modest result. And there definitely is the gap “He’ll take his temperature.”
This Thursday the first official inflation data of the Milei era will be released. City consulting firms estimate it is closer to 30%. It is precisely the acceleration of “liquefaction” that can exert upward pressure on the gap. “The problem arises from loss of competitiveness that the exchange rate suffers in the face of high inflation expected in the coming months, which raises doubts about the sustainability of this policy and whether the monetary authority will accelerate the pace of daily devaluation or make another discrete jump in the exchange rate subsequently, putting nominality stabilization at risk,” they said in the IEB group.
“If we hire an accumulated inflation of 95%. between the months of December and February (30% December, 25% January and 18% February) the official exchange rate It will be delayed and at today’s prices it would be around $580 by the end of January and $500 by the end of February“they warned.
Source: Clarin
