Argentina ended 2023 with a deficit of With Brazil 4,788 million dollars, the highest value in the last six years. This is a jump of 113.3% compared to the commercial red of $2,245 million in 2022.
This would leave 2023 with the largest trading red since 2017, when it was -$8,184 million.
Despite the poor result of the year, in December, Argentina had a trade surplus with Brazil of 52 million dollars, the only positive figure in all of 2023, according to data from the consultancy company Abeceb.
Over the year, imports from Brazil grew by 9.3%. The increase was uneven: between January and July there was an increase of 25.2%, while in the last five months of the year, when the previous government tightened the brake on imports, there was a decrease of 12%. 3%.
According to Abeceb, The drop in values imported in December from the neighboring country is explained exclusively by the reduction in the quantities purchased, which fell by 16.6% compared to the same month of the previous year. In the same month, however, prices grew by 6.1% per year.
In imports from Brazil and due to drought, soybean purchases grew by 1,017.3% over the past year. They thus reached 12.1% of the total imported.
Argentine exports to Brazil were equal 11,989 million dollars in 2023 a contraction of 8.5% compared to 2022.
Exports grew only in the first quarter (15.2% per year), and then decreased in the rest of the year, accumulating a decline of 14.2% between April and December. “There is no doubt that these data are due to the negative impact of the drought and the absence of sectors that could equally drive exports, which often faced difficulties due to barriers to imports, for example in the automotive sector,” says Abeceb.
“Argentina is expected to have a challenging economic year on a macroeconomic level. However, the foreign sector would experience another type of reality as it is expected to remain a high real exchange rate in historical terms (by encouraging exports), that the reversal of the drought effect is complete, that export incentives are greater and that the new SEDI system (which replaces the SIRA) allows foreign trade to be streamlined and made more efficient”, they underline.
Brazil’s economy is expected to grow 1.5% annually this year. This way, “Argentine exports would recover, at the rate of a disincentive to imports (given the 144% increase in the importing dollar, composed of a 121% devaluation of the official dollar and a 10% increase in the PAIS tax).
In any case, Abeceb warns that”Without stabilizing the important macroeconomic imbalances, it will not be possible to fully normalize the foreign sector.giving rise to a partial continuation of already existing controls and stocks”.
AS, “In the first six months of the year we expect imports to continue to be quite limited, “at least until international reserves are accumulated.”
Source: Clarin
