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The blue dollar is already on par with the MEP and is lurking in liquidity: can it continue to rise?

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The blue dollar continues to rise. On Wednesday it increases by 30 pesos and thus already in three days it accumulates a jump of 130 pesos which leads it to be listed at $1,150. This puts it on par with the MEP dollar, which is listed on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange $1,148.

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In this way, informal cash occupies second place among alternative dollars, while cash with liquidity remains the most expensive on the market $1,192.

With these rearrangements, the spread between different dollars is compressed. The most expensive card on the market for savers continues to be the dollar card, at which it is priced $1,334.4. Therefore, those who spend in dollars would be better off obtaining foreign currency in the parallel circuit rather than paying with credit or debit.

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At the same time, the paper dollar sets a ceiling for these alternative dollars. Today the gap between the CCL and the dollar paper is 12%. The gap compared to the wholesaler is instead 47%.

For economist Gustavo Ber, the reorganization of the prices of alternative dollars was expected “however “I was particularly surprised by the speed.”

These increases are driven by declining demand for pesos following the end of December-related seasonality, coupled with negative real rates, accelerating inflation and a creeping peg at just 2% monthly. For Ber, this “It could lead to a realignment of the current gap towards the 60% zone, currently equivalent to the tourist dollar.”

In this sense, the agreement with the Monetary Fund that the Government would announce in the next few hours would work in its favor to contain the gap. “The addition of foreign exchange from the IMF and external financing is crucial to reduce growing expectations of another devaluation before the arrival of the big harvest, in order to encourage liquidation,” Ber says.

Source: Clarin

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